Shapiro's strategy for 2028 White House run starts with 2026

• The moves, insiders say, are designed to maximize Democratic wins while positioning Shapiro as the party's most electable presidential contender.
• Next year's election map gives Shapiro plenty of opportunities: He's up for a second term and aiming to help flip as many as four congressional seats in Pennsylvania.

Between the lines: Shapiro needs to make a big splash if he decides to run for president, as virtually every top Democratic official in Pennsylvania expects.

• He's only at 4% now in early 2028 primary polls, despite a robust national media strategy and his considerable popularity in a must-win swing state that President Trump carried last year.
• Top Democrats say Shapiro — who won his 2022 campaign for governor by double digits — is betting that a strong 2026 performance could help him stand out in a field that could include better-known contenders such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Harris.
• A "track record of success" would be "a good argument to primary voters," said Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist J.J. Balaban, who's making ads for one of Shapiro's favored congressional candidates.

What they're saying: "Governor Shapiro is going to work hard to elect people who are going to fight for Pennsylvanians and defeat those who are making their lives harder," said Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder.

• "In 2026, Pennsylvania will be at the center of putting a stop to [GOP policies] by flipping the House."

Zoom in: Shapiro has been more engaged in electoral politics than in past years, shaking up a moribund state party and wading into congressional primaries.

• He previously kept his distance from the state's Democratic Party, which had struggled to raise money and faced intra-party accusations of incompetence.
• But Shapiro essentially launched a rescue mission this year, nudging the state committee chair to step aside and encouraging an ally, former state auditor general Eugene DePasquale, to take over.
• Shapiro then installed a longtime aide, Larry Hailsham Jr., as the state party's new executive director.

Behind the scenes: Shapiro also has used his political capital to privately shape congressional primaries. State Democrats say that's a departure from his normally risk-averse style.

• Shapiro intervened after state and national Democrats grew worried this year about the crowded primary to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a vulnerable first-term member.
• Shapiro encouraged firefighters union leader Bob Brooks to jump into the race against Mackenzie, according to two people familiar with their conversations, even after EMILYs List and the former Democratic congresswoman in the area backed another candidate.
• The governor will headline a fundraiser for Brooks this month. Shapiro hasn't officially endorsed him, but Brooks told Axios: "I'm doing this with the governor's support."

Shapiro also helped clear the Democratic field for former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, who's challenging Republican Rep. Scott Perry in a rematch after coming within 1 percentage point of defeating him last year.

• Shapiro quickly endorsed Stelson and held a fundraiser for her after she launched her 2026 bid.

• Shapiro quietly has made clear that he backs Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti's run against GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan, as well as Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie's challenge of Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, several sources said.
• Hailsham, Shapiro's liaison at the state party, has kept in regular touch with the governor's favorite congressional campaigns, sources said.
• Shapiro-approved candidates run across the party's ideological spectrum, from a Bernie Sanders-endorsed contender to more traditional Democrats — a notable coalition for the moderate governor ahead of 2028.

The other side: Republican Stacy Garrity, who's challenging Shapiro for governor, vows to complicate his expected glide path to reelection and likely run for president.

• "The political graveyard is full of candidates who have miscalculated and have tried to run for multiple offices at the same time," said John Brabender, a Garrity strategist.
• "This will be the first actual race Josh Shapiro has ever been in. He's had two statewide races where his opponents didn't even have enough money to run any type of definition about who Josh Shapiro is."

Context: Earlier this year, Shapiro opened up somewhat about his ambitions, saying of a presidential run: "A year ago, when someone would say that to me, I quite candidly would just laugh." But now, "I hear them say it because they're scared about what's happening in D.C."

• The idea that Shapiro only recently started taking a run seriously seems far-fetched to many who know him, however.

The bottom line: If Shapiro pulls off a big win in 2026 with coattails in congressional races, it could net him some IOUs from new House members — just as he's looking for endorsements for a White House run.

• "I think he feels that he has an obligation to help Democrats get the majority back in the House," said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based public affairs executive who's known Shapiro for decades.
• "If that helps him politically, that's great too."