Trump's peace deal without the peace between DRC and Rwanda
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President Trump speaks at Thursday's ceremony as Rwandan President Kagame (c) and DRC President Tshisekedi look on. Photo: Andrew Cabellero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty
President Trump declared an end to the war in eastern Congo on Thursday at a signing ceremony alongside Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame.
Reality check: The agreement is largely aspirational, and the early signals are ominous. While Trump described the decades-old conflict as "the eighth war that we've ended," there's been fighting just this week between forces aligned with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda.
The big picture: Conflict in eastern Congo, including two full-scale wars, has killed an estimated four to six million people since the 1990s.
- The DRC accuses Rwanda of intervening on its territory with its own troops and by backing the M23 militia (Rwanda denies both charges, despite evidence to the contrary). M23 took a large swath of territory earlier this year, including the major border city of Goma.
- Meanwhile, Rwanda views the presence near its borders of the Kinshasa-backed FDLR militia — founded by Hutu extremists after the 1994 Rwanda genocide — as an existential threat.
Driving the news: As the delegations were heading to Washington earlier this week, there were fresh reports of fighting between forces aligned with the DRC and M23.
- Asked whether anything had actually improved on the ground as a result of the deal, Rwanda government spokesperson Yolande Makolo said "it hasn't dramatically changed, but there has been progress."
- "The ceremony is not a magic wand — we'll sign and magically, everything will be peaceful," Makolo told Axios in an interview. She added that despite the difficulties, it was helpful to have the U.S. actively engaged.
- The DRC's embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
What they're saying: While Tshisekedi and Kagame have exchanged barbs and accusations for months, Trump claimed during Thursday's ceremony that they actually liked each other.
- "They've spent a lot of time killing each other and now they're going to spend a lot of time hugging, holding hands," Trump said.
- Kagame was more measured but said the U.S.-mediated process provided "the clearest and most viable path forward that we have ever had."
- Tshisekedi described the agreement as "a turning point," though he cast some doubt on Rwanda's willingness to comply and said his country would remain "vigilant."
- The ceremony was held at the former U.S. Institute for Peace, which Trump renamed in his own honor this week.
Breaking it down: Under the deal, the DRC is to "neutralize" the FDLR, while Rwanda is to lift its own "defensive measures" and respect DRC's sovereignty.
- With peace secured, economic elements of the deal would kick in. The Trump administration is particularly interested in opportunities to tap the region's immense mineral riches.
Friction point: That peaceful and prosperous end state appears a long way off. In fact, the countries disagree profoundly about what it would actually look like.
- To the DRC, M23's growing foothold in eastern Congo is intolerable. Kinshasa has been holding parallel peace talks with the rebel group but fighting has continued.
- Makolo, meanwhile, claimed the situation had actually improved markedly in areas taken by M23. In Rwanda's view, the DRC and its allied forces are the ones driving destabilization.
What to watch: It's hard to envision a security environment in eastern Congo that's achievable in the near term and acceptable to both Kishasa and Kigali.
