Mike Johnson's red alert on members quitting Congress
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Members of the House of Representatives are quitting Congress at a record rate, with Republican retirements and resignations outpacing Democrats by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio in the first 11 months of the year.
Why it matters: In previous cycles, the party with more departures tends to lose seats — if not the majority.
- Call it the congressional JOLTS rate. Like its BLS counterpart, a high reading for one party doesn't predict a House flip any more than a bad JOLTS number calls a recession.
- But it's not a great sign for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who needs to worry that early GOP retirements could strip him of his gavel this year.
- The record number of exits also guarantees that the next Congress will look considerably different than the current one, forcing leaders of both parties to contend with fresh faces and new challenges.
Driving the news: Forty-four lawmakers — more than 1 in 10 — have announced they plan to leave the chamber or already have.
- Mid-cycle redistricting, awaiting word from the Supreme Court, will likely further decimate the ranks of incumbents.
- Incivility is one explanation for the exodus. So is statewide ambition. Then there's fear of political violence. Or dreading "the prospect of winning," as Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) said when he announced he won't run for reelection.
By the numbers: In 2018, 34 House Republicans decided not to run for reelection, compared to only 18 Democrats before their party wrested control from the GOP.
- At this stage of the 2018 cycle, the trend had already emerged, with 26 planning to depart, compared to 12 Democrats.
- In 2022, a similar pattern emerged. By the end of the year, 31 Democrats had retired, versus 18 Republicans, ahead of a GOP takeover.
Between the lines: This cycle, the retirement itch isn't affecting vulnerable members, with two exceptions: Golden for the Democrats and Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska for the GOP.
- There's been a concerted, and so far successful, effort from GOP leadership to persuade battleground members, like Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) to stick around.
- Both parties feel confident that their most endangered incumbents will stick around and help their side fight for the gavel.
But morale is low across the chamber, and some members are questioning whether the job is still worth it.
- The legislative grind has been overshadowed by fights over censure and concerns about lawmaker security. House lawmakers have only spent a handful of days in Washington since July.
- "I would like us to get back to normal Congress," Johnson told Axios before the Thanksgiving recess.
- Republicans are also on edge that Trump's redistricting push may be backfiring. The Supreme Court is expected to rule next week on the GOP's Texas maps.
The bottom line: Retirement announcements are likely to go vertical in the coming months.
- "The time to watch is really between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That's when you see the most departures," former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Axios.
- "I'd always go after members in that period to give them a taste of what was to come, if they decided to stay for another cycle."
