Behind the Curtain: Red alert
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Everywhere Republicans look, they see big political trouble. Worse, they think things will get much bleaker before better as AI spreads through 2026.
- They see it in the top November races, where they got cooked.
- They see it in rising internal MAGA drama and division.
- And they increasingly see it in private and public polls showing President Trump's persistently plummeting popularity on key issues.
Why it matters: Step back and survey the political landscape. Republicans aren't only losing elections, they're consistently losing support on prices and the economy, in all polls, big or small, Republican or Democrat, over a several-month period. You can't spin yourself out of reality.
- "People are depressed," a Trump loyalist at the barricades told us.
Five new polls this week show Republicans' problems might be even deeper and more worrisome than many fear:
- In a Fox News Poll out last evening, voters said the White House is doing more harm than good on the economy: 46% said they've been hurt by the administration's economic policies, 15% say they've been helped and 39% said Trump has made no difference.
- Edelman this week released a flash update to its highly influential Trust Barometer, showing Americans are deeply fearful and distrustful of the Trump administration's top domestic fixation: accelerating AI. Big majorities are pessimistic about the technology broadly, and super-anxious that robots will eat their jobs. The global poll found that younger people in the U.S. (18-34) are much more distrustful of AI than their counterparts elsewhere in the developed world. Edelman CEO Richard Edelman told us: "People might believe that AI is globalization 2.0 — that jobs will shift out of our country, and jobs will go to ... somebody younger or cheaper."
- In Wisconsin, the swingiest of swing states, a new Marquette Law School Poll shows Democrats are more motivated and more popular heading into the 2026 elections. Voters are flunking Trump on the economy and inflation. These numbers are brutal: 36% approve of the Trump economy, and 28% approve of his handling of inflation and the cost of living. Looking to the future, 60% think Trump will drive prices even higher. Just 27% believe he'll lower them.
- A Marist Poll found Democrats have a 14-point lead over Republicans on the midterm generic ballot. ("If the 2026 election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district?") "This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot question," Marist notes. A year ago, registered voters were split 48% to 48%.
- Fox Business featured a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Trump's approval rating falling to 38% — the poll's lowest since his return to power, weighed down by his handling of the cost of living, and by the Epstein fracas. (Nate Silver's approval average is 41.5%. The Real Clear Polling average is 42.7%.)
The big picture: Trump officials know they need to shift this perception dramatically — and quickly. Yet big, lavish black-tie dinners with the Saudis or gold-plated White House renovations make it harder to convince voters Trump is on the case.
- There are also signs, small but noteworthy, of Republicans' rock-solid unity starting to fracture a bit — including the House revolt on the Epstein files ... the Senate's refusal to yield to Trump's demand to scrap the filibuster, which would allow simple-majority votes ... and roadblocks to Trump's push for pro-GOP redistricting in Texas, Indiana and Kansas.
- If the economy goes south — or perceptions of it remain in the cellar — Trump will have the same problem President Biden did: telling people their feelings and perceptions are wrong.
The bet: Trump officials tell us they feel confident the economy will grow and prices will ease starting in Q1 of next year. Trump will then declare victory on rescuing, then juicing the economy — and warn a Democratic Congress would pull America back to the Biden economy days.
- The Trump machine would then use redistricting wins (producing more winnable seats) + Trump's political money ($1 billion+) to protect the GOP's thin House majority.
Steve Bannon, whose "War Room" podcast is one of the most muscular MAGA machines, told us he hopes this red alert will inspire "Action, Action, Action" by Trump.
- "Let's run the table [with] a simple plan, aggressively executed," Bannon texted us. "The President may have to bang some heads. [His] entire plan has an objective of GROWTH, JOBS, HIGHER WAGES — now execute."
Reality check: Yes, Trump is right that Trump and Republicans do well when he's on the ballot. But he never will be again. And if you look at other recent elections without Trump running, you see why Republicans are panicky. More often than not, they lose.
- A smart analysis by Tim Carney, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a top conservative think tank, captured this reality starkly: "In 2016, Republicans controlled 31 governorships and 68 legislative chambers. Come January, the GOP will control only 26 governorships and 57 legislative chambers (more than a 15% reduction on both scores)."
The other side: The Democratic brand remains in the dumps. But most polls show a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican for Congress in 2026. And poll after poll shows about two-thirds of independents — the swing voters — down on just about everything Republicans do other than fighting crime and shutting the Southwest border.
The bottom line: The chances of a fast, decisive economic surge aren't high. Most forecasts project modest growth and continued pricing pressure for many household goods. Toss in Al and its possibility to gut new white-collar jobs, and you can clearly see the GOP risk — and angst.
- Axios' Marc Caputo contributed reporting ... Go deeper: "MAGA's metastasizing mess."
