Scoop: Trump plan asks Ukraine to cede additional territory for security guarantee
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Zelensky and Trump at the UN in September. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios.
Why it matters: Ukraine and its backers would see that as an enormous concession to Russia. The White House view, according to the U.S. official, is that Ukraine is likely to lose the territory anyways if the war continues and "therefore it is in Ukraine's interest to reach a deal now."
Breaking it down: The two thorniest issues in the Ukraine talks up to now have been who will control what territory once the war is over, and how Ukraine can be assured that Russia won't simply resume the war at a later date.
- The 28-point Trump plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk (together referred to as the Donbas), despite Ukraine still controlling around 14.5% of the territory there, per the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.
- Despite being under Russian control, the areas in Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw would be considered a demilitarized zone, with Russia not able to position troops there.
- In two other war-torn regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control would mostly be frozen in place, with Russia returning some land, subject to negotiations.
Between the lines: According to the Trump plan, the U.S. and other countries would recognize Crimea and the Donbas as lawfully Russian territory but Ukraine would not be asked to.
- A Ukrainian official claimed the plan also included limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military and on its long-range weapons in return for U.S. security guarantees.
- The Ukrainian official also confirmed that the U.S. plan includes Ukrainian territorial concessions in the Donbas.
- It's unclear what the U.S. security guarantees would entail beyond a promise to defend against further Russian aggression.
The intrigue: According to two sources with direct knowledge, Qatar and Turkey are involved in the drafting of the new Trump plan and in supporting the U.S. mediation efforts.
- "The Qatari and Turkish mediation helped in ending the war in Gaza and could help in ending the war in Ukraine," one of the sources said.
- A senior Qatari official participated in the talks between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's national security adviser Rustem Umerov last weekend, the sources said.
Behind the scenes: One source with direct knowledge said Umerov was empowered by Zelensky to negotiate with Witkoff, and many of his comments were incorporated into the text of the 28-point plan.
- The source claimed many understandings were reached in the talks with Umerov.
- A Ukrainian official confirmed Zelensky sent Umerov to be briefed about the U.S. plan. but said it was an oral briefing and Umerov didn't receive a written proposal from Witkoff.
- The Ukrainian official denied that Zelensky's adviser accepted the terms of the plan during the meeting and claimed Ukraine objects to many of the points.
- Prior to meeting Umerov, Witkoff held extensive discussions on the plan with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
- Some details of the Trump plan were first reported by the Financial Times.
Friction point: As part of the Turkish support for Trump's peace initiative, Witkoff planned to visit Ankara on Wednesday and hold a trilateral meeting with Zelensky and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, a U.S. official said.
- The U.S. official claimed the meeting was postponed when it became clear that Zelensky was walking back from the understandings reached with Umerov and is not interested in discussing the Trump plan. Zelensky instead was traveling to Ankara with another plan drafted with European partners, which Russia will never accept, the U.S. official said.
- A Ukrainian official said the meeting was postponed because Zelensky asked to discuss the plan in a broader format, including European countries.
- A second U.S. official said a domestic political scandal in Ukraine involving corruption investigations against some of Zelensky's closest advisers was another reason for postponing the meeting.
- The official said the Trump authorized Witkoff to try and reach a deal with Zelensky in Turkey and supported the decision to cancel the meeting with the Ukrainian president .
What's next: "We are now going to wait. The ball is in Zelensky's court," the U.S. official said. The official claimed Zelensky can come to Washington to discuss the new U.S. plan if he wants to.
