Poll shows Democrats with biggest generic ballot lead since 2017
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Democrats have opened a 14-point lead over Republicans in a national NPR/PBS News Marist Poll survey asking which party voters would back if the midterms were held today.
Why it matters: It's the largest advantage Democrats have held in a Marist poll since 2017, yet another positive sign for a party looking to make a comeback next year after a cascade of victories earlier this month in off-year elections.
Driving the news: Among 1,291 registered voters, 55% said they'd vote for the Democratic candidate in their House district, compared to 41% who said they'd back the Republican, according to a NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll national survey conducted last week.
- Another 3% said they would vote for another party's candidate, and 1% were unsure.
- When voters were last asked the question, back in November of last year, they were evenly divided, 48% to 48%.
- The Democrats have not held such a commanding lead in the survey since November 2017 — roughly the same point as today in President Trump's first term.
Context: This is a single high-quality poll, but composites show a similar trend, albeit with a narrower Democratic lead.
- FiftyPlusOne's polling average shows Democrats with an about four-point lead, while RealClearPolitics' shows a nearly five-point lead.
- But as noted by NPR, Democrats held a lead of zero to four points throughout the fall of 2022 with former President Biden in the White House. Republicans narrowly captured the House that year.
Friction point: Trump's approval rating has also plummeted to the lowest point of his second term in the poll, with 39% of national adults and 40% of registered voters approving of the job he's doing.
- Among independents, just 24% approve of his performance.
Stunning stat: Democrats hold a commanding lead among independents, with 61% saying they'd back the Democratic candidate compared to just 28% who would support the Republican.
What they're saying: But Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that "[c]herry-picked polls don't win races."
- He added, "House Republicans are on offense, smashing Democrats in fundraising, recruiting stronger candidates, and delivering real solutions."
The other side: Aidan Johnson, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement to Axios that for "months, we've said that Americans are fed up with Trump and House Republicans' failed agenda and we're seeing in real time the public sour on their broken promises."
- Johnson added, "Voters want leaders who are focused on affordability, which is why Democrats are poised to take back the House in 2026."
Between the lines: Democrats began the year mired in an identity and favorability crisis, with an apparent leadership vacuum and shut out of power on the Hill.
- Democrats' frustration with their own party and the tensions between its old and new guard are still very much prevalent.
- But elections earlier this month delivered a resounding rebuke to Trump, with Democrats claiming expected victories — but on head-turning margins.
The intrigue: Progressives and moderates alike centered much of their recent campaign messaging on affordability, which Trump has since tried to echo.
- In the NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll survey, one issue stood out as the clear winner when voters were asked what the Trump administration's top priority should be: lowering prices.
- Nearly three out of five (57%) voters said that should be the administration's priority, compared with just 16% who chose controlling immigration and 10% who selected reducing crime.
What we're watching: There is still a year to go, and many more polls, until the 2026 midterms. Across the country, redistricting efforts — and the legal fights they've sparked — could tip the scales.
Methodology: National NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of 1,291 registered voters conducted Nov. 10–13, 2025. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
