Retailers carve into profits to win the Thanksgiving table
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Retailers are locked in a Thanksgiving turkey price war, cutting into margins to hold onto cost-conscious consumers.
Why it matters: Americans are feeling squeezed, with grocery prices about 30% higher than before the pandemic — and millions facing new food insecurity after the government's SNAP benefits freeze.
- That strain is reshaping where people shop — and how far retailers will go to keep them.
- Most people say they're paying more for groceries now than a year ago, even as the administration insists prices are going down, not up.
The big picture: The nation's turkey flock has shrunk to its smallest size in 40 years, and a rebound in avian flu cases this fall is keeping pressure on supply and prices.
- Nearly 1.3 million turkeys have been impacted by outbreaks since October, mostly in Minnesota and nearby states, according to USDA data.
State of play: The National Turkey Federation says there will be enough birds for Thanksgiving, though fresh and specialty turkeys could tighten if flu cases accelerate.
Thanksgiving meal costs
By the numbers: Prices are rising for grocers, falling for consumers — and someone has to make up the difference.
- $1.73 per pound is the going wholesale rate for frozen hens, about 40% higher than 2024.
- Yet the latest USDA data says frozen turkeys are selling at retail for 25 cents per pound less than a year ago.
Between the lines: Many retailers are selling turkeys at or below cost to draw shoppers in for higher-margin items like wine, desserts and décor — a classic loss-leader strategy that works for big chains such as Walmart, Aldi and Kroger but squeezes smaller grocers.
- "Turkeys are kind of the loss leader on the Thanksgiving table," Leslee Oden, National Turkey Federation president and CEO, recently told Axios.
- Turkey retail promotions surged ahead of Thanksgiving, with the USDA reporting Friday a sharp rise in national feature activity and frozen whole birds now leading grocery ads.
Thanksgiving price wars 2025
Zoom in: Nearly every major grocer is cutting deep to prove its value — though many are also shrinking bundles or swapping in cheaper store-brand items to keep costs down.
- Walmart is matching last year's meal prices, feeding 10 for about $4 per person, though its bundle includes fewer items than in 2024.
- Aldi's $40 meal for 10 — about $4 each — is cheaper than last year's and includes a 14-pound turkey.
- Lidl's $36 meal for 10 is nearly $10 less than last year's, with turkeys priced at 25 cents per pound through its app.
- Kroger revived its Freshgiving bundle for under $4.75 per person, its cheapest in four years, anchored by private-label items.
- Target cut prices on 3,000 items and brought back its meal for four under $20, a penny less than last year, swapping two items and keeping turkey at 79 cents per pound.
What they're saying: Retail analyst Bruce Winder tells Axios this is "the most aggressive pricing environment since the pandemic."
- "Grocers can't afford to keep losing money on food forever," he added. "But in a market where loyalty is everything, they see it as the cost of staying relevant."
The bottom line: America's affordability crisis is reshaping the holiday season.
- Everyone's discounting turkeys — but someone's footing the bill. Retailers are absorbing the pain to show shoppers they still have their backs.
