Thanksgiving turkey shortage fears grow as avian flu spreads
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The nation's turkey flock has shrunk to its smallest size in 40 years, and a fall rebound in avian flu cases is adding fresh strain ahead of Thanksgiving.
Why it matters: Wholesale turkey prices are now about 40% higher than last year, driven by disease losses and tighter production, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Driving the news: Nearly 514,000 turkeys have been impacted by fresh bird flu outbreaks this month alone, mostly in Minnesota, per USDA data.
- The National Turkey Federation tells Axios that there will be enough turkeys for Thanksgiving, although supply could tighten for fresh or specific-size birds if avian flu cases accelerate in the coming weeks.
By the numbers: 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025 — down 3% year over year and 36% below the 1996 peak, per the Farm Bureau.
- Wholesale prices are forecast to climb to $1.32 a pound, according to USDA data cited by the bureau, even as production dips to a 40-year low.
- 2.2 million birds were lost to avian flu this year, affecting 12 states, USDA shows.
- 4.8 billion pounds of production are expected — 5% below 2024, per USDA.
What they're saying: "U.S. turkey growers and processors have been working around the clock, managing through challenges like avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus," Leslee Oden, president and CEO of the National Turkey Federation, tells Axios.
- "We feel confident in the frozen turkey supply, and while there's been an uptick in bird flu cases, we do not see those impacting overall supply right now," Oden says, noting that consumers should plan ahead if they want a specific size or type of turkey.
- A Butterball spokesperson tells Axios that the turkey brand will have plenty of options available for the holiday despite the "ever-evolving, industrywide challenge."
What's next: Some grocery chains will soften the blow of higher prices with deals.
- Discount grocer Aldi announced Wednesday that it's cutting its Thanksgiving meal price by $7 from last year — offering a $40 holiday feast for 10, complete with a 14-pound turkey and nine classic sides.
- Katie Searcy, senior editor at The Krazy Coupon Lady, tells Axios that free turkey offers are already rolling out and that some of last year's best deals appeared the week before Thanksgiving.
- "Turkeys are kind of the loss leader on the Thanksgiving table," Oden says. "There will still be plenty of deals in grocery stores available."
