Open SEC doesn't open IPO season
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
After 40-plus days, the SEC is open for business — and IPO hopefuls could theoretically start pricing by Monday.
Reality check: That doesn't mean they will, particularly given an extremely tight roadshow window from now til Christmas.
Friction point: Financials from June 30 will be stale by next week, meaning companies that have filed need to file an amendment with Q3 numbers as soon as possible.
- Plus, anyone aiming to price next week faces an extremely short roadshow, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. They should also be certain the SEC won't have new comments.
- Companies not expecting substantial comments are "going to call [their SEC examiner] 27 times" to flag their plans, one ECM lawyer tells me.
- Meanwhile, bankers say they're triaging clients based on company preparedness, with a host of businesses expected to delay until January.
Flashback: When the government reopened after shutting down for 35 days in 2018 to 2019, the SEC worked through the IPO backlog on a first-come, first-serve basis.
Yes, but: There are some heavyweights in line today who could get priority, the lawyer says.
- Medline, the Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman-backed medical supply provider reportedly looking to raise $5 billion at a $50 billion valuation, would be the largest U.S. IPO since late 2021. That S-1 came out on Oct. 28 and unaudited Q3 numbers were submitted on Nov. 4.
State of play: Crypto asset manager Grayscale (whose S-1 includes Q3 numbers) filed yesterday, joining at least a dozen companies in the pipeline.
- Roboadvisory startup Wealthfront and baby food maker Once Upon A Farm filed right before the shutdown.
- Missouri bank Central Bancompany, Christian tech company Gloo Holdings, and travel platform Klook flipped their S-1s after.
Zoom out: On top of the paperwork, companies and bankers have to manage a slightly more turbulent macro picture.
- Government data will come late — or not at all, so Wall Street might be flying blind into 2026, as Axios' Mady Mills writes this morning.
- Indicators of economic softness from any data that does emerge could spook public market investors.
- Then there's the concern of an impending AI bubble burst...
Look ahead: Expect to see a rush of new filings over the next two months, as companies that held off due to the shutdown move toward a Q1 debut.
The bottom line: Absent major disturbances, January will be very busy.
