Sep 30, 2025 - Business
IPO market poised to freeze with government shutdown
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Politicians are poised to put the hot IPO market on ice, as D.C. hurtles toward a government shutdown tomorrow.
The big picture: Companies need the Securities & Exchange Commission to bless their registration documents before going public. If the SEC is closed, no blessings.
- The agency hasn't posted guidance about its shutdown plans, as is customary, but few of its employees are likely to be deemed "essential."
- State of play: Government shutdown threats are more common than actual government shutdowns, but this situation looks bleak.
- The White House may use this as an opportunity to lay off tons of federal employees, while Democrats want to show that they'll wield their limited power when able. In other words, incentives are aligned in the worst way.
Calendar: Two big companies plan to price IPOs this week, which means they really need to price them tonight.
- That's the plan for flood insurer Neptune, which aims to raise around $350 million.
- No word yet on Fermi, an energy infrastructure REIT cofounded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, which is seeking around $500 million.
Look ahead: This is where things get tricky.
- Not only do companies need SEC approval to go public, they often get their final set of SEC comments while on their IPO roadshows.
- Companies could launch with the hopes that the shutdown will be short, which seems to be what both Alliance Laundry Systems and University of Phoenix are doing, but it's a risk (unless they somehow figured out a way to get preemptive final effectiveness notes).
The bottom line: Don't be surprised to see a band of idled IPOs, much like what we saw after "Liberation Day."
