Epstein files become a fiasco of Trump's own making

• Trump was put into a defensive crouch as the news dominated conversation on Capitol Hill, television and social media.

The tranche of emails released by the House Oversight Committee all but ensured the GOP-run chamber would bend to public pressure and vote for a measure to release the investigative records Trump has tried to keep hidden.

• The White House lobbied two key Republicans on Wednesday to drop their support for the effort, to no avail.
• There are no known credible allegations of wrongdoing by Trump in the Epstein case.

The big picture: Trump's reaction to the Epstein scandal is a window into how he handles major controversies that invite criticism about his leadership.

• Whether it's a question about the current affordability crisis, COVID in 2020 or the Russia probe in 2017, he has a penchant for pushing back against attacks by calling them Democratic hoaxes or con jobs.
• He then tries to kill the controversy with such a heavy hand that it helps keep the story alive.

Trump has started calling the recent attacks "the Epstein hoax." He sued The Wall Street Journal for publishing a story in July about a racy drawing and poem he allegedly wrote to Epstein for his birthday in 2003. Trump said the drawing and message weren't his.

• "The minute he thinks it's unfair to him and it's a personal attack, he just goes into fight mode," said one confidant. "No one wants to ask him what's going on here [with Epstein] because he just gets angry."

Zoom out: The Epstein files are an issue now because Trump and his top allies — from Vice President Vance to FBI director Kash Patel to Attorney General Pam Bondi — promised to release the investigative files before Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

• That promise energized Trump's conspiracy-thirsty MAGA base, which saw the files involving Epstein — a convicted sex trafficker who died in prison in 2019 — as a chance to expose crimes among the rich and powerful.
• Then in July, six months after taking office, Trump reversed course and forbade the release of the files.
• "He told Pam [Bondi] not to release the files. We don't exactly know why," said another Trump insider.

Trump, a former friend of Epstein's, is frequently mentioned in the files but has never been linked to any crimes. Even so, just being mentioned in the files has appeared to aggravate Trump.

• Some of the emails released Wednesday were first issued by House Democrats and then by the entire Oversight panel.
• The emails are separate from the investigative files at the Justice Department and were obtained from Epstein's estate. They are not related to the files Trump blocked, and they include insulting descriptions of Trump in emails from Epstein to others.
• In these emails, Epstein indicated he was at Trump Tower in New York after Trump won his first election in 2016, suggesting the falling out between the two had been patched up.
• In other correspondence, he called Trump "dirty," "demented," "borderline insane" and "f**king crazy," or said Trump had "early dementia" and was photographed "with girls in bikinis in my kitchen."
• However, none of the emails was between Trump and Epstein. Trump wasn't known to use email.

Context: The way the emails exploded on Capitol Hill recalled the 2016 WikiLeaks release of emails that damaged Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's campaign against Trump.

• As in this case, the emails showed no clear sign of wrongdoing by the intended target. But the fact that there was such a big volume of behind-the-scenes details ensured the story dominated media coverage and social media, creating the appearance of a scandal. And appearance can be reality in politics.

What they're saying: "When we passed my motion to subpoena the Epstein files, we knew we'd find damning information," Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) said Wednesday on X. "Today we learned Trump is alleged to have personal knowledge of Epstein's crimes & spent hours with victims."

• Lee's post referred to an email in which Democrats redacted the name of the Epstein victim, Virginia Giuffre, who Epstein had said had spent "hours" with Trump at Epstein's Florida home.
• But Giuffre, who committed suicide in April, had never accused Trump of wrongdoing, testified she knew of no accusations against him and was supportive of his 2024 presidential campaign.
• That context was missing from Democrats' press release.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denounced the redaction and House Republicans then released all the emails.

• Trump fumed Wednesday on Truth Social that Democrats "are using the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax to try and deflect from their massive failures, in particular, their most recent one — THE SHUTDOWN!"
• After a decade of intense scrutiny of the Epstein case and numerous lawsuits, White House officials say, Trump would have been named publicly as a suspect by now if there were credible evidence against him.
• Some of the victims in the Epstein case settled their cases and signed nondisclosure agreements, so there are unknowns. It's one reason Democrats say the full investigative files need to be released.

What's next: House leaders say they expect scores of Republicans may join Democrats next week in voting to release the Epstein files, despite Trump's lobbying.

• The measure is likely to die in the Senate, where it takes 60 votes to approve legislation and Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats.

At 10:25pm Wednesday, Trump signed the legislation to reopen the government and joked with reporters in the Oval Office.

• "I don't know if you have questions," he said as GOP lawmakers chuckled behind him.
• Asked about the Epstein emails, he didn't respond. The press was then hustled out of the room.