Stefanik's playbook in N.Y. governor's race: Tie Hochul to Mamdani

Zoom out: Stefanik — who launched her campaign Friday — is aggressively trying to tie Hochul to Mamdani, and to cast herself as a check to the incoming mayor if she's elected next year.

• Stefanik, a MAGA loyalist, has given a series of interviews in which she knocks Hochul for endorsing Mamdani — and released an online video showing the governor and mayor-elect clasping hands at a campaign rally.
• She's expected to release additional Mamdani-focused ads, according to sources familiar with the campaign's strategy.
• Stefanik has plastered her social media feed with posts linking Mamdani to the governor. "Hochul will bend to the Communists!" she posted on Wednesday, the day after Mamdani's election.

Zoom in: Stefanik's team says the strategy is aimed at winning over independents and moderate Democrats who may be alienated by Mamdani's brand of democratic socialism.

• It also notes that Mamdani barely surpassed 50% of the vote in the election, the lowest total for a winning candidate in a New York mayoral race in more than two decades.
• That, Stefanik's campaign argues, is an indication that in Democratic-friendly New York City — which in 2024 accounted for more than one-third of the statewide vote — there are a swath of voters who are unfavorable toward Mamdani and could turn on Hochul.

Stefanik's biggest hope: that Hochul finds herself in a bind.

• If Hochul green-lights Mamdani's request for tax increases to pay for his affordability push, Stefanik's theory goes, the governor would turn off moderates and independents. But if she turns Mamdani down, she risks alienating his coalition of voters she wants to turn out for her in 2026.
• Stefanik's team also points to a further complication for Hochul: She is facing a primary challenge from Democratic Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who like Mamdani favors tax hikes on the wealthy.
• Hochul "is faced with an impossible choice: Give Mamdani and his radicals what they demand, or face a devastating revolt from her left," said Chris Grant, a Stefanik adviser.

The other side: Hochul has said little about Mamdani since he was elected, other than a social media post congratulating him — a sign she's treading carefully.

• Democrats note that Republicans have a long history of attaching rival candidates to liberal bogeyman (or women, lately) — Reps. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (Minn.). The GOP has had mixed success going after them.

• "Desperation has many outlets, and Stefanik's strategy will run up against the same shelf life that previous efforts to tie every moderate Democrat to more extreme, left-wing elected officials has in the past," said Jay Jacobs, chair of New York's Democratic Party.

Democrats also note that Stefanik — like other Republicans up for election next year — has her own figure to navigate: Trump.

• Hochul on Friday released a video highlighting Stefanik's longtime alliance with Trump, who lost New York by 12 points in 2024.
• "She'll always put Donald Trump ahead of you," it says.
• If Stefanik continues to align herself with Trump, she could turn off the Democrats and independents she needs to win, Democrats argue. But if she distances herself from the president, she could alienate his supporters.

Stefanik didn't mention Trump in her launch video. A Stefanik adviser said the campaign views her relationship with the president as a positive.

The big picture: Republicans are planning to replicate Stefanik's strategy nationwide.

• The National Republican Senatorial Committee this week sent out press releases casting seven Democratic candidates as aligned with Mamdani's agenda.
• "From New England to the South to the heartland, the picture is clear: Mamdani's ideology is no longer fringe — it is the foundation of the Democrat Party," NRSC Chairman Tim Scott (S.C.) wrote to donors.