Dems warned of "hell to pay" if they cut "weak" post-election shutdown deal

• "We had a huge night last night, and striking a weak deal in the immediate aftermath would be a self-own," the lawmaker said.
• Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) told Axios: "The sweeping, powerful election results mean Senate Dems should absolutely NOT cut a deal that doesn't protect Americans' health care."
• The mere promise of a future vote or negotiations on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, for instance, is "not enough," a second House Democrat told Axios, saying Republicans have "thrown out every agreement made this year."

Driving the news: Democrats met their benchmarks and then some on Tuesday night, winning back the governorship in Virginia and retaining it in New Jersey, both by double digits.

• Democrats also secured unexpected supermajorities in the Virginia House of Delegates and the New Jersey State Assembly, while also winning key races in Pennsylvania and New York City.
• In California, a proposition to allow Democratic lawmakers to redraw the congressional map to negate the advantage created by Republicans' mid-decade redistricting in Texas passed in a landslide.

What we're hearing: Several sources pointed Axios to a post on X quoting President Trump at a breakfast with Senate Republicans on Wednesday morning saying "the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans" in the elections.

• The post was "making its rounds in all the chats" Wednesday morning, the second House Democrat told Axios.
• A set of post-election talking points circulated among Democratic congressional offices warned: "Caving without concessions would sap Democrats' momentum and undercut the party's support from its base."
• "Democrats throwing [Republicans] a rope in exchange for nothing would be political self-sabotage," it added.

What they're saying: "Last night's results shouldn't be taken lightly nor should they alter our current trajectory," said Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.). "We should stay the course."

• "I'm confident most senators will hold strong unless/until we get movement on health care, at a minimum," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).

Zoom out: It's not just fellow congressional Democrats issuing these warnings — it's also the liberal grassroots groups that have held significant sway over Senate Democrats' shutdown maneuverings.

• Andrew O'Neill, the national advocacy director of Indivisible, told Axios: "Today, Democrats in Congress' task at hand is clearer than ever: hold the line against any budget that raises health care costs or gives Trump's reckless agenda another inch."
• Said MoveOn executive director Katie Bethell: "Moderate Senate Democrats who are looking for an off-ramp right now are completely missing the moment if, on the heels of last night's election landslide, they are entertaining the idea of capitulating to Trump and the Republicans in the fight to protect Americans' health care."

Between the lines: What constitutes a satisfactory deal is unclear, though several lawmakers made clear that any nonbinding pledge of a future Senate vote on extending ACA subsidies — especially at a 60-vote threshold — won't cut it.

• "Not sure promise of a vote is good enough," a third House Democrat who spoke anonymously told Axios.
• Balint said Senate Democrats "absolutely" need to push for a vote at a 50-vote threshold — which would make it more likely to pass — saying, "People want us to fight AND deliver."

The bottom line: "Getting nothing would be unacceptable," a fourth House Democrat told Axios. "That's all I know."