Behind the Curtain: Anti-AI socialist scenario

This future was captured vividly on Sunday in New York, where Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Zohran Mamdani and democratic socialist allies electrified a jam-packed stadium in Queens for a mayoral race.

• Chants of "Tax the rich!" roared at the "New York Is Not for Sale" rally. Young people cheered wildly. It was a stunning socialist celebration.

It's not just a New York thing. Or a Mamdani thing. It's a where-the-energy-in-a-demoralized-party-reigns thing.

• Sanders and many others see AI as the next big fight in American politics — one ripe for a heavy focus on protecting workers and spreading tech wealth to others.
• "100 percent agree," said Faiz Shakir, a longtime Sanders adviser who is founder and executive editor of More Perfect Union, an Emmy-winning advocacy journalism nonprofit. "Right now, there is an amazing lack of political discourse for something that will be a very high priority later."

Shakir told us that the threshold question for progressive candidates at this point is: "Are you prepared to oppose and challenge the 'high IQ' individuals who tell us this transition is going to be great for working people?"

• "We need much more political discourse about whether the upside value ... is worth the downside degradation of our jobs and livelihoods, our relationships, and the meaning of life itself," Shakir added. "A winning candidate will show that they can put forward a vision where the enormous wealth generated from AI accrues to helping solve the struggles of working-class families."

By the numbers: Gallup presaged this dynamic with polling last month showing that 66% of Democrats hold a positive view of socialism, compared to 42% for capitalism. Sanders — who, along with former President Obama is one of the most popular politicians in America — has positioned AOC as a progressive heir apparent.

• If Mamdani wins the New York mayor's race on Tuesday, as expected, the movement will be the talk of non-Trump politics.

That's socialism. Now to AI! We got our hands on the results of extensive swing-state polling last month for an energy interest that asked not to be named. Rarely do we see data with such a resounding conclusion: Distrust and worry about AI is the new bipartisan issue.

• A plurality of voters in each of the eight states said that they have an unfavorable impression of the AI industry ... that AI will raise their energy costs ... and that they believe increased use of AI will make their lives worse.
• The higher the income, the more favorable the swing-staters were toward AI, and the more likely they were to believe it'll make their lives better. The findings suggest lower-income workers fear being displaced.
• In some states, Republicans were essentially split on AI, while independents and Democrats held unfavorable views.

One of the pollsters — Bob Ward of the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward, with tight White House ties — told us: "While the case for AI has captivated investors, the average voter is worried about it. The AI industry's image is underwater among Republicans, independents, and Democrats." He said likely fears range from "losing a job, to not being able to trust what's real versus fake, to higher utility bills from data centers that are consuming massive amounts of electricity."

• Ward added that it's "important for candidates saying, 'We need to win the AI race' to understand, at least today, that sentiment is being met by your average voters asking: 'Why?'"

The big picture: Most out-of-power parties are defined as a reaction to the party in power. President Trump, whose wins were powered by working-class voters, has spent far more time as president with AI CEOs and innovators. He's all-in on accelerating AI innovation "for the benefit of the American people," as opposed to focusing on regulations or mandates. That's where Sanders and Democrats see a big, growing opening.

• Three realities are expected in coming months:

1. Energy prices in many areas are expected to rise, as consumers compete with big data centers for finite energy capacity.
2. Job growth is expected to slow, especially for recent college-age grads, mostly because of AI.
3. AI companies and investors are expected to keep getting richer, expanding the inequality gap.

Morris Katz, Mamdani's top strategist, told Axios' Holly Otterbein that at a time of "historic income inequality and social upheaval, every candidate should be embracing an aggressive vision" on AI.

• "Whichever candidates and party are able to define themselves as the best line of defense against this impending crisis will be both on the right side of history and strongly positioned electorally," Katz added.

Zoom in: The political backlash to the vast data centers required for AI has already started on the local level, with counties and cities debating the economic benefits vs. the resources they consume.

• The moderate Democratic nominee for Virginia governor, Abigail Spanberger, has called for data centers to "pay their own way" for electricity.

Reality check: Another of the swing-state pollsters — Randy Gutermuth, CEO of American Viewpoint — didn't buy our conclusion that if you were to confect the next winning national candidate in a lab, they'd be an anti-AI socialist. "If I were advising a client," he said, "the increase in AI will make state workforce development programs even more important."

• But Gutermuth said: "This is going to be an even bigger issue when voters start connecting increased usage of AI to increased energy costs, given the demand AI data centers put on the grid. Right now, it's pretty clear there are a lot of voters not yet making that connection."
• Some top Democrats — who think the party needs a moderate and should be techno-optimists, while clear-eyed about AI risks — say the more likely scenario is a candidate who doesn't identify as a socialist but is socialist-adjacent.

The bottom line: This climate is ripe for an anti-AI socialist to emerge as a counter to Trump and to more mainstream Democratic orthodoxy.

• Axios' Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein contributed reporting.

Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: America's energy jam."