How the SNAP freeze will squeeze Walmart and grocery stores
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SNAP payments are set to go dark this weekend, yanking billions from grocery aisles — with Walmart and other value retailers most exposed.
Why it matters: The shutdown will halt about $8 billion a month in federal food assistance, money that usually flows straight into grocery stores and big-box retailers.
- The pause will squeeze the lowest-income shoppers and dent traffic for chains most dependent on consumers looking for value.
By the numbers: Walmart captures 24% of all SNAP shopper spending, according to Numerator's 2025 SNAP Evolution report.
- That's triple Kroger's share and far ahead of Costco, Amazon and Sam's Club.
- Walmart became the first retailer to accept SNAP online in all 50 states in 2023, and rolled out its Walmart+ Assist program, offering half-price memberships for those getting aid.
What they're saying: "If SNAP payments fail to go out it will crimp spending by the lowest income groups," Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData, told Axios. "Walmart gets a plurality of the spending, so it will be hardest hit."
- He adds that while missed payments are often reimbursed later, the result is a choppy pattern of growth — a sales dip during the lapse, then a rebound once benefits resume.
- Some states and agencies may try to offer aid, but "it is unlikely they can completely fill the funding gap," Saunders said.
State of play: Major grocers including Walmart, Albertsons, Aldi, Kroger and Target didn't comment directly to Axios, but their trade group — the Food Industry Association (FMI) — spoke broadly on their behalf and warned that a lapse in SNAP would ripple through local economies.
- The group is urging Congress to reopen the government and maintain funding for SNAP and WIC, Jennifer Hatcher, FMI's chief public policy officer, told Axios.
- "When SNAP benefits are redeemed, they don't just help families put food on the table, they also sustain full-time jobs in local communities and contribute to the local tax base," Hatcher said.
- Hatcher said that "because benefits are distributed by most states over several weeks, authorized retailers are able to ensure access to fresh products like milk and produce."
Reality check: Just because SNAP benefits go away, doesn't mean low-income Americans stop buying food, says Bernard Yarros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. Some will likely trade down, buying cheaper products — less meat, for example.
- And while grocery stores will take a hit, some of that might be offset by more spending at discount stores or warehouse stores where people can get better value.
Emily Peck contributed.
