And so it begins: AI's labor market squeeze tightens
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
By all accounts — even in the absence of government data — the U.S economy is growing strongly, driven by almost unfathomable levels of spending to build AI dominance.
- Just one caveat: Don't bother looking for a job.
The big picture: Some of America's largest and most important employers say they don't need to hire to keep growing, as AI takes the place of many workers and drives more productivity out of others.
- Everyone fears a white-collar AI bloodbath. That starts with a few big names proving out the AI proposition, before others (perhaps quickly) follow.
Driving the news: Amazon will reportedly cut up to 30,000 jobs this week, joining brand names like Target and Paramount Skydance in cutting thousands of corporate positions.
- The cuts largely affect corporate roles — the kinds of work most easily displaced by increasingly powerful artificial intelligence models.
Between the lines: The impact is magnified if there are no jobs for the people who've lost theirs.
- As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, some of the country's top employers don't see the need to hire.
- JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Walmart, among others, have all said in recent weeks that they expect to hold down headcount.
What they're saying: JPMorgan has a "very strong bias against" rushing to hire for any given need, the Journal quoted the bank's CFO as saying.
- It tracks with broad data that suggest job listings are down and the "no-hire, no-fire" labor market isn't loosening up.
Reality check: There are plenty of reasons companies are cutting jobs this year. In fact, recent data suggests AI is still low on the list.
- But CEOs are nearly universally saying that AI is giving them the confidence to keep hiring in check.
The bottom line: AI is coming. CEOs know it, and the academics who understand the labor market best know it too.
- The question is whether the workers themselves are paying attention and ready for what comes next.
