Strong economic growth vs. labor market bleakness: "Something's gotta give"
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In terms of economic growth, these are the best of times. In terms of the job market, Americans perceive it to be among the worst of times.
The big picture: That situation can't persist forever. The big question hanging over the economy heading into 2026 is whether GDP or job growth data is giving the truer measure of underlying activity.
- Put differently: Which one will converge toward the other, and when?
What they're saying: In a speech last week, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said he sees "a conflict right now between data showing solid growth in economic activity and data showing a softening labor market."
- "So, something's gotta give — either economic growth softens to match a soft labor market, or the labor market rebounds to match stronger economic growth," he said.
By the numbers: GDP grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the second quarter and is tracking at 3.9% in Q3 in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, boosted by massive investments in AI-related data centers and software.
- But job growth averaged only 27,000 a month in the May-through-August period. Historically, you simply don't see that kind of job growth flatlining outside of periods when the economy is either just about to enter or just recovering from a recession.
- Yet the unemployment rate has held relatively steady, raising the possibility that the soft job growth is more an artifact of immigration policy lowering labor supply than a cratering of labor demand.
State of play: There are hints out there that the job market really is as bad as the payrolls data suggests, or at least that that's how people are viewing it.
- Goldman Sachs economists, citing the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, said Americans' expectations for the unemployment rate have never been this bad outside of recessionary periods in the nearly five decades the question has been asked.
- "Since job market indicators often provide more reliable information about current growth than the preliminary GDP estimates," Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote, "this weakness adds to our conviction that Q2/Q3 GDP sends too positive a signal."
Yes, but: You can tell a sunnier story. The apparent weakness in the job market, in this telling, reflects a temporary confluence of immigration policy reducing labor supply, companies making one-time adjustments to new tariffs, and firms successfully using AI to become more productive.
- In this story, the robust demand shown in GDP will eventually lead corporate America to boost production and hire workers to meet that demand.
- Even as AI continues to drive productivity gains, those workers who are displaced should have ample opportunities in the sectors that are growing, thanks to robust underlying demand.
