Exclusive: Trump immigration plan may wipe out 15M jobs by 2035, study claims
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A farmworker sorts through limes at Mission San Juan Diego's food bank in Mecca, Calif., on Oct. 7, 2025. Photo: Russell Contreras/Axios
The Trump administration's immigration crackdown is projected to reduce the U.S. workforce by 6.8 million people by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035, per a study first shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Fewer workers in the labor force could have dramatic effects on the U.S. economy, from lower economic growth to reductions in the nation's goods and services produced.
The big picture: The drop in workers could alter the nation's projected demographics and make it difficult to revive manufacturing jobs — or to attract workers in health, agriculture and energy as the population ages.
- Projected new workers entering the workforce wouldn't fully make up the difference, leading to the net reductions, per the National Foundation for American Policy, a Washington, D.C.–based think tank that focuses on trade and immigration.
Zoom in: The study estimates that, of the projected decline in U.S. workers by 2028, 2.8 million would stem from legal immigration changes and 4 million from illegal immigration crackdowns.
- Roughly a third of the 15.7 million fewer workers in 2035 would result from policies on legal immigration.
State of play: President Trump, since taking office, has promoted stepped-up enforcement by the U.S. Border Patrol, and by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents targeting undocumented immigrants.
- The most significant targets in Trump's crackdown include immigrants who've had temporary protection to stay in the U.S. — more than 1.2 million people who fled wars, oppression, natural disasters and poverty.
- Legal immigration changes also include a pause on refugee admissions, a 2025 travel ban, and new limits on international student work programs.
The other side: White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Axios in a statement that Trump's agenda to create jobs will capitalize on "untapped potential" while enforcing immigration laws.
- "There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force," Jackson said.
- Jackson added that over one in ten young adults in the U.S. are neither employed nor in higher education nor pursuing vocational training.
- In April, President Trump signed an executive order "to modernize American workforce programs to prepare citizens for the high-paying skilled trade jobs of the future."
What to watch: The Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement would decrease average annual GDP growth by about half a percentage point between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2035, the study warned.
- The analysis also concluded that the immigration policies would raise the federal debt.
- The study's findings result from estimating the loss of workers through 2028 and 2035 under the Trump administration's immigration policies, using the Congressional Budget Office's publicly available tools to examine the impact.
Caveat: The analysis doesn't factor in the likely economic hit from limiting U.S. companies' access to high-skilled foreign workers through new rules and administrative actions, which the study notes could also slow productivity growth.
What we're watching: The administration has set a goal of deporting a record 1 million immigrants each year — even though the highest number of removals by ICE in a single fiscal year was 409,849 in FY 2012 under Obama.
- The National Foundation for American Policy warns that if Trump were to achieve one million annual deportations, the likely effect on the labor force would be larger than what this analysis suggests.
