Axios-Ipsos poll: Trump, RFK Jr. lose America's trust on health care

Driving the news: Confusion, suspicion and partisan cues are creating a deep divide between the public and the medical establishment, driven by the Trump administration's proposed changes to childhood vaccination schedules and promotion of an unproven link between Tylenol and autism.

• "It should be easier to make sense of how we live healthy lives — there's agreement across the board on that," said Mallory Newall, Ipsos vice president for U.S. public affairs.
• "There certainly is an erosion of trust, primarily driven by Democrats, but Republicans are not immune."

The intrigue: The survey finds about 1 in 5 Americans buy Trump's recent claim about Tylenol and autism, but it also hasn't landed with his base.

• About 1 in 3 Republicans say they believe there's a connection between Tylenol use during pregnancy and autism, while 44% say they aren't sure and 21% say there's no link.
• Survey respondents also expressed initial skepticism about the administration's soon-to-be-launched TrumpRx website, with just 22% saying they'd likely buy prescription drugs that way.

What we're watching: Is this data a blip, or a sign the "Make America Healthy Again" movement may peak or splinter?

By the numbers: Party identification is a huge driver of responses, and there was ambivalence or uncertainty across several measures.

• 19% of respondents said Trump's and Kennedy's policies have made America healthier, down 8 percentage points from our survey in late February.
• Another 41% say their policies have made America less healthy, down 5 points, and those who don't see much impact rose to 36%.
• Just 3% of Democrats say their policies are making Americans healthier, while 75% say they're making America less healthy.

Between the lines: Republicans are less sure of Trump and Kennedy than when asked in the survey shortly after Trump took office.

• Today, 43% say there hasn't been much impact from Trump's and Kennedy's policies, while 42% say they've made Americans healthier and 13% say less healthy. Independents are somewhere in between.
• A majority of survey respondents (55%) said CDC guidance had no bearing on their decision about whether or not to get an updated COVID-19 vaccine.

Zoom in: When it comes to children, 26% of respondents (35% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 30% of independents) said they favor ending vaccination requirements for kids to attend public schools. That's up from 19% in February.

• 74% of Americans say parents should follow the CDC's recommended child immunization schedules, down from 81%.
• Some of that decline is driven by Democrats, whose support on this front slipped from 94% to 85%.
• But that may be less a reflection of their views on vaccines than a reflection of their mistrust in the change in leadership at the CDC.

If there's one thing that unites Americans in this survey, it's the belief that there's too much information they can't trust and that it should be easier to make sense of how we live healthy lives.

• While considerably more think government policies should focus on promoting healthy lifestyles and foods rather than developing new drugs, more than 8 in 10 respondents think most of the information online is about making money rather than helping people.
• Almost as many (78%) say it can be confusing to follow official guidance about what is good for you. And more than half (54%) say they don't have time to worry about health and wellness on a daily basis.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted October 10-13, 2025, by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,125 general population adults age 18 or older.

• The margin of sampling error is +/-3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.