15,000 churches could close this year amid religious shift in U.S.

The big picture: The decline of traditional brick-and-mortar churches comes as a record number of Americans (29%) are identifying as religiously unaffiliated, and as 62% identify as Christians — down from 78% in 2007, according to the Pew Research Center.

• At the same time, mostly non-denominational megachurches — and evangelical Christianity in general — are an increasing influence on American life, driven by charismatic leaders, sympathetic politicians and social media.
• These colliding trends have shaken the nation's longtime religious footing: There are fewer and fewer communities built around local churches, but rising pressure from conservative citizens and government officials to inject more religion into public schools, settings and institutions.

By the numbers: The record number of church closings forecast this year stems from struggles many churches face — including retaining full-time pastors, said Thom Rainer, a former president of LifeWay Christian Resources, an entity of the Southern Baptist Convention that provides resources for churches.

• In a widely shared Baptist Courier piece, Rainer — a consultant on church health — said that waves of church closings are coming, and that another 15,000 U.S. churches will move from full- to part-time time pastors.
• Rev. Eileen Lindner, a former deputy general secretary for research for The National Council of Churches, estimates that 100,000 U.S. churches across denominations will close during the next several years, confirming Rainer's analysis.
• That would amount to roughly a quarter of the nation's 350,000 to 400,000 churches today.

Zoom in: Mainline Protestant denominations such as Methodist, Presbyterian and Lutheran represent nearly all the church closings, said Ryan Burge, a political scientist who writes the "Graphs About Religion" Substack.

• The closures mark a shift away from once-powerful denominations in the U.S. that brought people of diverse political views together, said Burge, author of the upcoming "The Vanishing Church: How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith, and Us."
• Burge said that as a result, many communities are left with empty church buildings that can be difficult to sell because they often are next to historic cemeteries.

The intrigue: The number of Catholic churches also appears to be declining, partly because of the continuing following from priest abuse lawsuits, said Andrew Chesnut, the Bishop Walter F. Sullivan chair in Catholic Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University.

• Baltimore's Catholic Archdiocese, the nation's oldest, is slashing its churches by about two-thirds, citing shrinking attendance and aging buildings, according to the AP.
• "I think the only ones who have shown some dynamism lately on the American Christian landscape are these non-denominational, usually charismatic megachurches," Chesnut said.

Evangelical megachurches, however, tend to have fluid memberships despite their growing influence in Republican Party politics, Burge said.

• "The large churches have a lot of churn. A lot of new people come in every year, but a lot of people leave too, because they never build strong and deep ties."
• Their success is based on one or two leaders, and a death or scandal can damage or bring an end to that church, he said.

Megachurches could take membership hits in the future if younger Americans feel they're being forced to accept religion in public spaces, Chesnut predicted.

• "I think evangelicals are going to pay the price for so closely hitching their wagon to MAGA," he said.
• "If you're making kids pray in school, as I've learned anytime I make my kids do something, they'll do the opposite."

Go deeper: Americans continue to lose their religion as the GOP pushes it

• Non-religious 'nones' are on the rise, study shows
• Our lawmakers are more religious than we are