RFK Jr. allies say autism claims will drive midterm turnout

• But while tapping into growing mistrust of mainstream medicine and promoting controversial autism theories could energize some disillusioned voters, it risks alienating people with the condition, their families, and experts who view his rhetoric as harmful and misleading.

"It's a huge issue and going to be an important part of the midterm election," said Republican lobbyist Marty Irby, who previously represented the MAHA-aligned group Moms for America.

• "Whether it's the food we eat, whether it's the vaccines, whether it's the drugs that the pregnant mother takes, it's definitely something that mothers across America are paying attention to," he said.

Yes, but: Kennedy's claims are already generating widespread criticism particularly his suggestion that acetaminophen use by pregnant women is linked to autism, a statement his own health department later walked back.

• People with autism are especially incensed by Kennedy's treatment of the condition as a disease rather than a lifelong condition that should be better understood and accommodated to help them live with dignity.
• "What he's peddling here isn't just ignorance, it's institutionalized hopelessness," actress Holly Robinson Peete, a longtime autism advocate, said on Instagram. "From the very office that's supposed to protect public health we're getting fear and shame and blame and misinformation."

The other side: "Secretary Kennedy is focused on answers and action for families as autism spectrum disorder has surged nearly 400% since 2000 and now affects 1 in 31 U.S. children," a Health and Human Services spokesperson said in a statement to Axios.

State of play: Kennedy and his backers believe the effort is resonating with parents who feel they've been gaslit by the medical community and the media about the causes of the neurodevelopmental disorder.

• They also are sending a parallel message about vaccines and autism — long dismissed by mainstream science — with calls to add autism to the list of conditions covered by the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.
• The Kennedy-aligned MAHA Institute hosted a recent event in a downtown Washington, D.C., hotel featuring doctors who have split from the mainstream ranks and consultants offering holistic alternatives and messages of empowerment and hope to parents.
• "It feels like there's been a paradigm shift from 'It's genetic and there's nothing you can do,'" said one attendee, Dawn Loughborough, a parent of an adult child with autism. "Autism is finally being acknowledged. I'm thrilled this administration is acting."

The autism message will dovetail with broader MAHA efforts to mobilize voters ahead of the midterm elections, including multimillion-dollar ad buys and deploying Kennedy across the country to sell his agenda.

• But it's not without risk, because tying autism to vaccination has its limits, said Gordon Hensley, a former HHS senior adviser in the first Trump Administration and a GOP campaign strategist.

• Hensley believes White House staffers are "likely a lot happier seeing Secretary Kennedy talking about the fundamental MAHA precepts of chronic disease prevention, reforming the food supply and the like, as opposed to fomenting CDC infighting and vaccination chaos."

A Quinnipiac University poll late last month showed Kennedy's approval ratings are dwindling, with 33% saying they approve of the way Kennedy is handling the job, compared with 38% when they polled voters in June.

• A majority of voters (57%) said they don't have confidence in the medical information Kennedy cites, the poll found.
• Kennedy's contentious testimony in front of Congress and upheaval at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "may have struck a nerve with voters who were less familiar with where he stood on the issues," Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said.
• Republicans in Congress have responded to the autism messaging with caution. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) warned against weakly supported health claims, and Senate health committee chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) criticized the claims.

The bottom line: Kennedy and his allies think they've hit on a winning formula for tapping into parents' frustration and using populist themes of medical freedom and hope.

• "We have the Democrat and Republican voters who are policy voters because of their child ... and they will cross lines," said Rob Houton, CEO of Mobilizing Accountability in Congress for a Healthier America Coalition, which has been fundraising for MAHA-aligned candidates.

Go deeper:

• "Heartbreaking" and "cruel": Mothers decry Trump's Tylenol-autism claims
• People with autism bristle at continued stigmatization from Trump, RFK Jr.