Gold surges to record high amid doubts around dollar dominance

What they're saying: "Gold is the carpenter on the sailboat—helpful in a leak, dead weight otherwise," writes Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Muriel Siebert & Co.

• When stocks and bonds are selling off, as they are now, investors want to own gold.
• The precious metal's momentum also comes from its role as "an anti-dollar or alternative dollar asset," Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management, tells Axios.

Catch up quick: The catalysts driving declines in the dollar, down nearly 10% year-to-date, aren't on track to go away any time soon.

• U.S. growth has cooled, with "not as much exceptionalism anymore," per Doshi.
• Tariff uncertainty is clouding the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency.
• The Trump administration hasn't pushed back against a weaker dollar, since it can make U.S. exports more competitive.

Between the lines: Several forces could keep propelling gold higher:

• Markets are pricing in a Fed interest rate cut this month, lowering money-market yields and making gold more appealing.

• Threats to Fed independence would favor gold over the dollar.
• A deeper equity selloff could spark demand for gold as a hedge.
• Central banks continue to buy aggressively, fueling physical demand.
• That buying reflects a "multi-decade trend" of diversifying away from the dollar amid concerns about U.S. deficits.

Thought bubble: Gold and crypto have been rising in tandem as the dollar falls—a sign that central banks and investors may be looking to diversify away from fiat currencies altogether.

The bottom line: These dynamics could push gold toward $4,000 an ounce by year end, Doshi says.