Holiday shoppers plan first spending pullback since 2020, PwC report says

• It's one of the first sizable surveys to flash a significant warning sign for the retail sector this coming season.

The big picture: The holidays will still happen — but with tighter wallets and more deliberate choices.

• The effects of tariffs are expected to be felt more widely this fall, with higher prices, plus a change in product mix and holiday promotions.
• Retailers' pre-tariff inventory is nearly depleted — and what hits shelves next will have already been subject to higher tariffs rates that companies are starting to pass on to consumers.

By the numbers: 84% of respondents expect to cut back in the next six months, per the PwC survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers conducted between June 26 and July 9.

• Americans plan to spend $1,552 on average, down from $1,638 in 2024.
• Gift spending is projected to fall 11% to $721, down from $814 last year.
• Tariff-concerned consumers say they anticipate 10% lower gift budgets.

Zoom in: There's a generational divide, with Gen Z planning a 23% cutback, while baby boomers are up 5% and Gen X up 2%. Millennials are roughly flat.

• Households with kids power the season's spending — $2,349 on average, compared to $1,089 without kids.
• Nearly 40% of gift dollars will be spent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with almost 80% of gift budgets wrapped up by then.

Yes, but: Global tariffs are in flux after a court declared much of President Trump's trade agenda to be illegal on Friday.

• Trump said Tuesday that his administration will appeal to the Supreme Court as soon as Wednesday.

More from Axios:

• Why economists now fear tariff rollbacks
• Trump warns of "economic disaster," claims $17 trillion at stake with tariffs
• Tariffs may mean earlier holiday deals, fewer choices, report says