The 2025 IPO market nears flashpoint
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The 2025 IPO market is about to meet its moment of truth, now that Labor Day is in the rearview.
Driving the news: Five companies launched IPO roadshows on Tuesday morning: Figure, Klarna, Gemini, Legence, and Black Rock Coffee.
- We're still waiting on Via Transportation and StubHub.
Catch up quick: The year began with high expectations, thanks to a pipeline packed by years of idleness, but then everything got thrown off-kilter by President Trump's tariffs rollout.
- In fact, U.S. IPO proceeds are actually lower than at this same point last year.
- The result has been Wall Street kicking its giddy vibes into September and October.
Zoom in: IPO issuers always take great pains to say they aren't trying to time the markets. "This is just a moment in time," blah, blah.
- The truth is that they very much care about the macro, and the macro is relatively good right now.
- The Fed has signaled September rate cuts and equities are still near record highs. Yes, there is new tariff uncertainty that's caused an early Tuesday sell-off, but it seems to be the difference between Trump's tariffs being in place (i.e., the new normal) and not (i.e., what markets wanted in the first place).
By the numbers: Renaissance Capital estimates that between 40 and 60 companies could price U.S. IPOs between now and year-end, raising around $10 billion.
- That's not quite a gusher, but it's a very steady flow of activity — easily outpacing the first nine months.
- Plus, you could get lots more companies going public via SPACs, which have seen a recent revival and have over $23 billion in active trusts.
The bottom line: IPO hopes always spring eternal. This time it might be justified.
