1.5 million immigrants have left the U.S. so far this year
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The White House crackdown appears to have driven 1.5 million immigrants out of the country, according to a new tally from Pew Research.
Why it matters: It's the first time the immigrant population has fallen in decades, a clear win for the Trump administration. It could slow the economy.
- Labor shortages in important industries like caregiving, agriculture and meatpacking, already showing up anecdotally, could become a more systemic problem.
By the numbers: In January, the foreign-born population hit an all-time high of 53.3 million, driven by a surge during the Biden administration. Since then, data from the Census Current Population Survey, analyzed by Pew, shows a decline.
- By June, the immigrant population had dropped to 51.9 million.
- 19% of the labor force were immigrants as of June — down from 20% last year.
- That's a decrease of more than 750,000 workers.
Zoom out: The decline is mostly due to deportations and immigrants voluntarily leaving the country, fearing the crackdown.
Yes, but: Pew notes that some of the decline could just be a reluctance of people to respond to government surveys.
- Even as the immigrant population has fallen, the U.S. is home to more immigrants than any other country, Pew points out.
The big picture: The White House's aggressive deportation push has had enormous ripples throughout the country, disrupting people's lives in countless ways.
- For some businesses, the fallout has been severe as well, with reports of farms and factories being unable to hire enough workers to harvest crops or process meat.
Between the lines: Fewer immigrants, means fewer workers. That could be a reason for the lackluster employment reports from the past few months.
- There's been just 35,000 jobs added per month from May to July, normally a "four-alarm labor market fire," writes Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown.
What they're saying: "Promises made. Promises kept," White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Axios's Russell Contreras when asked about the Pew report.
- The White House argues that fewer immigrants will be good for the job market.
What to watch: Millions are leaving the workforce, just as the population is rapidly aging — raising questions about whether or not there will be enough workers to care for older Americans. It's not a job that AI can shoulder.
