Trump's three-step strategy for Russia-Ukraine peace talks
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President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the tarmac of Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Forget about a ceasefire right now. President Trump's sole short-term goal for his Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, advisers say, is to get the countries' leaders face-to-face to talk peace.
- "Everything else is foreplay," a Trump adviser tells Axios. "Everything is to get to that moment for peace."
Why it matters: Trump was heavily criticized for abruptly abandoning his demand for a ceasefire from Russian President Vladimir Putin during their Alaska summit on Friday.
- Putin has increased the pressure on Ukraine militarily by pressing forward with the invasion and intensifying missile and drone strikes in the hopes of gobbling up more territory, giving him more leverage at the negotiating table.
The big picture: White House advisers claim that Monday's crucial meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington is evidence of momentum from the summit with Putin.
- One Trump adviser told Axios: "I'm sure Putin is waiting to see how Monday goes, but it's everybody's expectation, not just the always-rosy Donald Trump, but also [special envoy Steve] Witkoff and [Secretary of State Marco] Rubio, that Putin will meet" with Zelensky.
- "There's a way to make a deal: get the buyer and the seller in the same room at the same time discussing it," said one of the Trump advisers familiar with the talks. "What we're trying to figure out is if both sides really want a deal and what the contours look like."
Administration officials describe it as a three-step process:
- Get Putin to sit down in a bilateral meeting with the U.S. to agree to steps toward peace.
- Get Zelensky to sit down in today's bilateral meeting with the U.S. to agree to steps toward peace.
- Get Putin and Zelensky to sit together to hash it all out in a trilateral meeting that involves the U.S. It's unclear if this will happen.
Friction point: In Alaska, Putin issued maximalist demands when discussing five disputed regions of Ukraine, including Donetsk, where Russia currently controls roughly 75% of the territory.
- Putin wants all of it — and at one point seemed so firm on his demand that Trump was ready to walk away.
- "If Donetsk is the thing here and if there is no give, we should just not prolong this," Trump recalled saying to Putin, according to a source. Putin then reportedly backed off that demand.
- U.S. intelligence estimates vary on Russia's strength, a source said. One assessment posits that Putin could seize all of Donetsk by October. Another predicts a far harder and inconclusive slog.
- A Ukrainian official refuted the idea that Russia could take over Donetsk by October. "Our part of Donetsk is heavily fortified, with terrain and cities that are very good for defense. It is a fortress. Russia will not take Donbas — not in months, not in years," the Ukrainian official said.
Zoom in: After the Alaska summit, neither Putin nor Trump engaged in a question-and-answer session with the traveling press, which expected more explanations from an otherwise chatty U.S. president.
- Trump exited Anchorage so quickly that administration officials left behind summit materials on a hotel printer, NPR reported. Trump and Putin's planned working lunch was canceled.
The public explanations were left to Rubio and Witkoff on Sunday shows. They appeared on seven programs, insisting that an immediate ceasefire wasn't feasible — but that good progress was made with Putin.
- Witkoff and Rubio made clear that Trump did not negotiate land boundaries on Ukraine's behalf, but said he represented Kyiv's interests.
- They said that Putin, for the first time, agreed that the U.S. and European allies could provide "security guarantees" to halt further Russian aggression.
- "It would be a very big move by the President if he were to offer a U.S. commitment to a security guarantee," Rubio said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." Witkoff called it "game-changing."
Between the lines: Asked if such "security guarantees" could include U.S. troops stationed in Ukraine, one Trump adviser privately told Axios yes. Another said it wasn't clear and that "we won't negotiate in the press."
- Rubio told NBC's "Meet The Press" that both sides will have to give up something to get peace and "agree to potential concessions or discuss potential concessions without it finding its way in the public sphere and creating all kinds of internal problems."
The bottom line: Rubio said Sunday that the war is only getting worse — and only Trump could score meetings with the leaders of both Ukraine and Russia.
- "20,000 Russian soldiers were killed last month, in July, in this war," Rubio told CBS. "That just tells you the price they're willing to pay. ... It's a meat grinder, and [the Russians] just have more meat to grind."
