How global tensions are complicating tariff-fueled inflation risks
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Economists are considering a new inflation risk: geopolitical tensions that keep upward pressure on prices, especially on the energy front.
The big picture: Despite messaging to the contrary over the weekend, a top White House official confirmed Monday that the administration will still impose heavy tariffs on India, a major buyer of Russian oil, second only to China.
- That comes as the administration considers whether to impose even more economic penalties on Russia as its war against Ukraine drags on — a move that could reverberate across the global economy.
Driving the news: That uncertainty is part of the backdrop as European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive in Washington, D.C., for talks about a path to end the war.
- The high-stakes Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage concluded without a ceasefire agreement or peace deal, an outcome that President Trump previously warned would bring severe consequences.
- Bloomberg reported last week that the Trump administration was considering the possibility of sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, an action that officials hoped would be short-lived, given the possible impact on prices.
- But after the summit, Trump said he wouldn't think about the possibility of sanctions for "two or three weeks." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that additional sanctions might further delay peace talks.
Yes, but: Top Trump adviser Peter Navarro said Monday that the White House would move to hit Russia indirectly with secondary tariffs targeting India.
- "India's dependence on Russian crude is opportunistic and deeply corrosive of the world's efforts to isolate Putin's war economy," Navarro wrote in an op-ed published in the Financial Times.
- Navarro, an influential voice on trade and tariffs, said the Trump administration's plans to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50% — set to take effect next week — was a "two-pronged policy."
- It will "hit India where it hurts — its access to US markets — even as it seeks to cut off the financial lifeline it has extended to Russia's war effort," Navarro wrote in the op-ed.
What they're saying: "The U.S. adviser's sharp words on India's Russian crude imports, paired with postponed trade talks, revive concerns that energy flows remain hostage to trade and diplomatic frictions," Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Singapore-based firm Phillip Nova, told CNBC.
Between the lines: Energy prices have been stable since Trump took office, offsetting some of the tariff-related price hikes.
- Crude prices are below the recent peak in June after tensions flared between the U.S. and Iran. Energy prices are down 1.6% from a year ago, while gasoline prices are 9.5% lower, according to the July Consumer Price Index.
- Global oil demand has been tepid; any knock to supply might not be particularly meaningful. The Department of Energy's independent statistics agency expects lower oil prices next year.
Flashback: The opposite dynamic prevailed during the Biden era. Energy prices soared as Russia invaded Ukraine and officials took steps to cut off the world's supply of Russian oil.
- The move was seen as necessary from a geopolitical standpoint. Economically, it ignited inflation that was already on the upswing.
The bottom line: Few expect a repeat. But geopolitical tensions add a new dimension to America's tariff-fueled inflation risks.
