Trump's ceasefire goal raises stakes of Putin summit
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President Trump just upped the ante for Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin — both for the war in Ukraine and his own credibility. Three advisers who've been in the room as Trump discussed the summit are adamant he's not bluffing.
Why it matters: This is no longer just a "feel-out meeting," as Trump originally labeled it. Not after he privately told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO leaders that his goal was a ceasefire, and then publicly threatened Putin with "very severe consequences" if he doesn't agree to stop the fighting.
What they're saying: "This is Trump being the most serious he has ever been and the most direct. He wants to show the world," a senior U.S. official told Axios.
- "Now, the onus is on Putin: agree to a ceasefire or show real movement or there will be severe repercussions," the official continued. "Putin has to show very positive movement."
Between the lines: Trump threatened "serious consequences" if Putin didn't to a ceasefire by last Friday, only to change course when Putin proposed a meeting.
- A second U.S. official insisted this time is different — that Putin "tapped Trump along," then requested this meeting, and now he has to deliver.
- But if the meeting is a flop and no harsh consequences follow, Trump's threats will ring more hollow in future.
Breaking it down: Consider these three potential outcomes for the superpower summit in Anchorage.
1. If Trump gets an unconditional ceasefire, it will be the first multi-day pause in the fighting since Russia's full-scale invasion 3.5 years ago.
- It'll be the first tangible progress more than 200 days into Trump's fitful peace process.
- And it might open the way for substantive peace talks, despite the irreconcilable positions currently held by the warring parties. Zelensky has repeatedly said serious negotiations can begin only during a truce.
2. If Putin won't budge, it will appear to the world that he stared down Trump on U.S. soil and did not blink.
- Trump could respond with further steps to hamper Russia's oil exports — the lifeblood of its economy and war effort. He could also increase arms shipments to Ukraine.
- "The general view for months is that we can bring down the Russian economy tomorrow, tomorrow," a third senior U.S. official told Axios. "There are a few steps to ruin them. Most of them come from Treasury. Some come from DOJ."
3. Then there's the possibility that Putin answers Trump's ultimatum with a "yes, but."
- Putin has agreed in principle with Trump's past ceasefire demands but insisted on "clarifications" and preconditions.
- And Trump didn't explicitly say Wednesday that Putin had to agree to an immediate ceasefire, only that he'd impose penalties if he deemed Putin was unwilling to end the war.
- That leaves some wiggle room on both sides, though Trump's advisers insist he'll leave the table with a clear sense of whether Putin is serious.
What's next: Trump said if the meeting goes well he'll try to arrange a quick follow-up summit involving Zelensky, and if not "we are not going to have a second meeting."
- He didn't specify what the costs for Putin would be, or how he'd decide whether to impose them.
- "The president is just trying to advance the ball. You have to take him at face value. He wants to take measure of the man and his intentions, and he'll move forward accordingly," the first U.S. official said.
