Early data shows major homicide drops in 2025 so far
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Evidence markers next to shell casings at the scene of a fatal shooting in Philadelphia on May 27. Photo: Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images
Homicides declined in major U.S. cities — by more than 50% in some communities — during the first six months of the year, according to new data from an organization of law enforcement executives.
Why it matters: The stats are the latest signs that violent crime in America is falling from the COVID crime wave, and that drop appears to be accelerating during President Trump's first months in office.
The big picture: Violent crime ticked up early in President Biden's term, but reports show it's dropped significantly since then as law enforcement agencies responded to the pandemic surge and adopted more detailed recordkeeping.
- The recent downward trend in crime also counters Trump's false claims that immigration had sparked rising crime nationwide — a reason he gave for his mass deportation plan.
By the numbers: Reports from 68 law enforcement agencies showed a 19% drop in homicides in the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to stats compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA).
- An Axios analysis of the MCCA data found that Denver, Honolulu, Orlando, Portland and Tampa all had a 50% or more decrease in homicides during that period.
- Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Louisville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle all had declines in homicides of more than 30%.
The intrigue: Aurora, Colorado — a city Trump repeatedly and falsely singled out as being overrun by Venezuelan immigrant gangs during the 2024 election — saw a 16% drop in homicides.
- Phoenix, another city Republicans claimed was besieged by violent crime because of undocumented immigrants, had an 11% decline in homicides during the first six months of this year.
- The data from MCCA's self-reported agencies included New York City in this report. Its previous reports didn't have New York City, which saw a 27% drop in homicides.
Yes, but: Some communities did see a jump during this period.
- Boston experienced a 143% surge in homicides during the first six months of 2025.
- Cincinnati, El Paso, Fort Worth, Kansas City, Mo., and Milwaukee also saw increases, the Axios analysis found.
Zoom in: Overall, violent crime appears to be falling in every category.
- Rape was down 9%, robbery decreased 18% and aggravated assaults fell 10%.
What they're saying: "President Trump is delivering on his promise to Make America Safe Again — and the results speak for themselves," White House Assistant Press Secretary Liz Huston told Axios.
- "The safety of the American people is President Trump's top priority, and he's taking decisive action to protect our communities, including removing dangerous illegal aliens from our streets."
The other side: "The only thing the Trump administration deserves credit for is attempting to kneecap Baltimore's progress," Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott's office said in a statement to Axios. Baltimore saw a 23% decline in homicides.
- "Earlier this year, the Trump Department of Justice cancelled more than $800 million in violence prevention grants."
- The mayor's office credited the city's Comprehensive Violence Prevention Plan and investments in new parks, playgrounds, rec centers, schools and libraries.
- "These historic lows are the result of a comprehensive public safety strategy that treats gun violence as a public health issue."
Zoom out: The quarterly reports from MCCA typically have been a good measure of trends that are reflected in the annual FBI crime data released a year later.
What we're watching: Trump has said he will tie federal grants to local police departments based on a requirement that they participate in his plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.
- Local agencies could opt out of Trump's plans under pressure from local residents — and face fewer resources to fight crime.
Go deeper: Homicides in big cities kept declining in Q1 of 2025, stats show
