Three things to watch after the big UN climate ruling
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
A UN court's finding that countries face climate obligations under international law will find its way into climate litigation in multiple venues — as well as diplomatic and policy battles.
Why it matters: It's also a win for the nations most vulnerable to climate change, including the Pacific island nation Vanuatu, which spearheaded the push for a decision.
Catch up quick: The International Court of Justice found in a 140-page ruling that countries face requirements under various climate, environmental, and human rights agreements.
- The UN's judicial arm's unanimous opinion finds that "wrongful" acts under international law "require" cessation of those activities.
- It calls for compensation if a "sufficiently direct and certain causal nexus can be shown between the wrongful act and injury."
A few quick things that caught my eye from the decision that will have ripple effects we'll be following for years:
1. It practically invites litigation over fossil fuels. Check out this line (with emphasis added, and remember "state" means country):
- "Failure of a State to take appropriate action to protect the climate system from GHG emissions — including through fossil fuel production, fossil fuel consumption, the granting of fossil fuel exploration licences or the provision of fossil fuel subsidies — may constitute an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State."
2. It tries to pump up those NDCs. The opinion seeks to put stronger scaffolding around the largely voluntary Paris Agreement, including countries' emissions pledges called "nationally determined contributions."
- That could bring new litigation over nations' NDCs by parties who argue they're too meek or not being implemented, attorneys backing the ruling say.
- "The court made it very clear that failure to implement an NDC would amount to a lack of good faith and a violation of the state's obligations," said Margaretha Wewerinke-Singh, legal counsel for Vanuatu.
- "The content of the NDC also has to be consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement, including the 1.5°C temperature goal," she said at a news conference, though noted that developed industrial powers face more responsibilities.
3. Don't look for it to sway President Trump. "As always, President Trump and the entire Administration is committed to putting America first and prioritizing the interests of everyday Americans," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement to Axios.
- Trump is moving the U.S. away from working with UN-affiliated bodies, and is again leaving the Paris Agreement.
- That said, the advisory opinion claims countries face obligations under multiple pacts the U.S. remains a part of, such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal Protocol.
The bottom line: The opinion is a BFD — but only to a point.
- Industrial nations' on-the-ground policies are rooted in domestic economic needs, politics, and market realities as global energy demand rises.
- Global venues like the ICJ or the UN climate summits are more secondary influences, but they do create pressure for stronger action.
