Tariffs and tight budgets reshape back-to-school shopping

• This season is a stress test for family budgets and a strategy test for retailers trying to hold onto value-conscious shoppers.

Catch up quick: New U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports — including backpacks, pens, binders and shoes — kicked in earlier this year, rose sharply, then came back down to levels still historically high.

• Some retailers stocked up early and "purchased a lot in advance, and some didn't purchase as much because of the uncertainty," Deborah Weinswig, CEO of Coresight Research, told Axios.
• "Clients of ours who are in denim or basics brought everything in early. They've been warehousing it," Weinswig said.

Early school shopping driven by tariff anxiety

The big picture: 67% of back-to-school shoppers had already started buying for the coming school year as of early June, according to the National Retail Federation's annual survey of nearly 7,600 consumers, released Tuesday.

• This is up from 55% last year and the highest since NRF started tracking early shopping in 2018, the group said.
• 51% of families said they are shopping earlier this year compared with last year "out of concern that prices will rise due to tariffs," NRF said.
• School supply purchases were up 175% during last week's Prime Day, Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance, tells Axios, citing Adobe Analytics data.
• Davis says this shows "price-weary consumers were looking to make the most of retail sales."

By the numbers: NRF said Tuesday that families with students in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $858.07 on clothing, shoes, school supplies and electronics, down from $874.68 in 2024.

• Total spending is estimated at $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion last year.
• Shoppers are expected to spend $13.6 billion on electronics, $11.4 billion for clothing and accessories, $7.8 billion on shoes and $6.6 billion on school supplies, NRF said.

Back-to-school prices up

Zoom in: Stationery and supplies prices have risen 30% over the past five years, according to Deloitte's 2025 back-to-school survey.

• Between May 2021 and 2025, boys' apparel climbed 14%, girls' apparel and footwear were each up 4%, while personal computers and peripheral equipment fell 11%.
• "Parents are experiencing overall economic pressures and need to make decisions about what they buy," Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte Consulting LLP, told Axios.

Yes, but: The full impact of tariffs hasn't hit store shelves yet — and back-to-school season may be the first test of how much price pressure shoppers will tolerate, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute report released Monday.

• The June Consumer Price Index shows a 3.4% increase in stationary, stationery supplies and gift wrap and a 10.2% price index in college textbooks.

What they're saying: "Retailers have done a solid job front-loading inventory to delay price spikes — so for now, many shelves still reflect pre-tariff costs," David Warrick, EVP at supply chain risk firm Overhaul, told Axios. "But that buffer may run out by late summer or early fall."

• "We're starting to see price creep on everyday items — including school supplies — but the full impact of tariffs will likely cascade in phases," Warrick said.
• "Many of these categories are caught in the crossfire of the latest tariff expansions, and we're expecting an average price increase of 12 to 15% across back-to-school essentials," Warrick added.

Target teacher discount 2025, holding supply prices

Target is holding the line on 2024 prices for key items like a $5 backpack and a bundle of 20 supplies under $20, to help ease pressure on family budgets.

• As in past years, Target is offering a one-time 20% discount for verified college students and verified teachers.

Zoom out: Not all retailers have unveiled their full back-to-school plans.

• Walmart, the world's largest retailer, used its six-day summer sale that ended Sunday to kick off the early return of back-to-school deals on supplies and first-day fashion.
• Staples announced it has thousands of deals on school supplies and will have weekly freebies with purchases from July 20 through Aug. 16, plus a 20% discount for verified teachers.