Trump's megabill: What are the next steps and hurdles after Senate passage
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Sen. Majority Leader John Thune speaks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol on Monday. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Congressional Republicans are racing toward a self-imposed July 4 deadline to pass President Trump's sweeping domestic policy bill, though its ultimate fate remains uncertain.
- The Senate passed its version of the bill Tuesday after a 24-hour vote-a-rama, or a series of unlimited amendment votes.
Why it matters: Trump's marquee legislation would cement some of the biggest policy goals of his second term. All eyes will now be on the House.
- Senate Republicans passed the bill 51-50 after a grueling, multi-day process that kicked off Saturday evening. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) only needed a simple majority of 51 votes for passage under budget reconciliation rules, as the party lost three votes: Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine).
- Even if Congress meets its deadline, a variety of recent polls show Americans have deep skepticism about the legislation.
- There's been criticism from both parties over the bill's cost as well as its cuts to Medicaid, and Democrats have zeroed in on the social safety net losses, funding for immigration enforcement and rollbacks of clean energy initiatives.
🏛️ Here's what needs to happen next to meet the July 4 deadline:
1. The House and Senate will have to resolve their different versions and negotiate a unified version of the bill. (Or the House could accept the Senate's changes wholesale and move to a final vote — which is unlikely.)
- The Senate's version of the bill already has significant differences from the House version, including on Medicaid work requirements, the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, wind and solar tax credits and a provision to nix taxes on tips.
2. Both chambers ultimately must approve the same version of the bill. The House will have to come back from recess to vote on the Senate plan or a compromise — which could happen as soon as Wednesday.
3. Trump would then be presented a bill to sign into law, which he wants to do alongside Independence Day celebrations on Friday.
OK, but what are the major hangups?
- Republican infighting: Tillis and Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) have already announced their retirements this week. Tillis got Trump-backed primary threats for opposing the bill's cuts to Medicaid. But his exit and his statements about the rank partisanship of Washington underscore the extent to which moderate holdouts who will defy the president are a dwindling breed.
- Parliamentarian rulings: The parliamentarian has already forced some delays to hammer out revised bill text, like on the Medicaid provider tax. Additional rulings against bill language could lead to more last-minute tweaks — and further delays.
Can Democrats do anything?
- They're expected to uniformly oppose the bill, but since Congress is using the reconciliation process, they don't have the power to stop the bill on their own.
- The party lacks majorities in either chamber and has little leverage, beyond forcing Senate amendment votes that put Republicans in tricky political positions — and stacking political messaging attacks for the midterms.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details and developments throughout.
