The tariff clock is ticking with just two weeks left

Driving the news: The "Liberation Day" tariff pause ends on July 8.

• President Trump threatened that 50% tariffs on European goods would come a day later, assuming no deal, as well as the restart of substantial tariffs against dozens of other countries.

The big picture: Financial markets aren't as panicky now as they were three months ago. The "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) trade has shown that.

• Stocks are up about 20% since the pause went in place, shrugging off the trade war, actual war in the Middle East, and lingering doubts about the place of the U.S. economy in the world.
• But even if markets aren't nervous, and even if consumers are now more upbeat than they were in the spring, businesses are getting more anxious than ever about what comes next.
• Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok, in a new paper this week, predicts tariffs mean a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months, and even if that doesn't happen, they'll still mean higher-for-longer interest rates.

Catch up quick: The U.S. has a deal in hand with the U.K. and a truce of sorts through part of August with China.

• Nothing else is done, and it remains unclear how close anything else is.
• On May 16, Trump said the administration would start unilaterally setting tariff rates in two or three weeks. That never happened.
• On June 11, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was "highly likely" deadlines would slide for countries that were negotiating in good faith. Hours later Trump said extensions weren't necessary.
• National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Tuesday that "a sequence" of trade deals was coming around the July 4, though he didn't say how many or with whom.
• "The time horizons set on the current negotiations are unrealistic, to say the least," economists at Morgan Stanley wrote on Monday. "Which is why we expect framework agreements at best and at worst, delayed deadlines."

Where it stands: Trump last Friday said the U.S. was going to sign a trade deal with India, but administration officials have been saying the same thing consistently for two months now, virtually from the outset of the tariff pause, with no sign of an actual agreement.

• Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported over the weekend that European Union officials see U.S. trade demands as so "far-fetched" that it's not clear any deal can be made.

• At the same time, Canada last week threatened new countermeasures, Japanese officials are wary and Mexico remains resolutely mum.

What they're saying: "Trade and fiscal policies are unknowns and that is one of the biggest factors hanging over U.S. stocks now," Michael Landsberg, the chief investment officer, Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management in Florida, wrote on Monday.

• "We have not heard much progress being made lately with China on the tariff issue and that pause is set to expire in just a few weeks. We think investors need to brace for additional volatility within the next few weeks," he added.

What to watch: It's entirely possible a raft of deals is imminent, given the active negotiations with so many countries.

• The July 8 deadline could also come and go with no action. There's precedent from past tariff deadlines on Mexico and Canada.

For the record: "Negotiations with our trading partners are ongoing, and meaningful progress continues to be made towards more deals," a senior administration official told Axios, noting a "flood of countries" that have approached the U.S. with "good faith offers" on trade.

The bottom line: Trump often likes to talk about major decisions coming within two weeks, which sometimes doesn't actually mean 14 days.

• This time, it does, and the entire economy is watching.