New X-date gives Congress a little more time

The United States government will run out of money between Aug. 15 and Oct. 3, according to a new analysis from the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Why it matters: Congress may have bought a little more time to pass President Trump's one "big, beautiful bill."

• The forecast, which relies on the latest tax receipts, places the so-called X-date slightly later than previous estimates.
• The White House wants to use the threat of a government default to force Congress to pass Trump's "big, beautiful bill." The House bill raises it by $4 trillion and the Senate version increases it by $5 trillion.

Driving the news: The further the X-date is pushed out, the less pressure there is on Congress to act in July.

• Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios he plans to start voting on the Senate version on Friday, to meet their self-imposed July 4 deadline.

What they are saying: "Congress must address the debt limit ahead of the August recess," said Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center.

• The updated projection reflects new data from strong quarterly June tax receipts. A March estimate from BPC put the X-date as early as mid-July.

Zoom out: The BPC is one of several organizations that try to forecast when the treasury department will breach the current $36 trillion debt limit, which is currently at $36 trillion.

• A March estimate from them put the X-date as early as mid-July.
• A forecast from the Congressional Budget Office earlier this month put the date range between mid-August and late September.

The bottom line: The most important timekeeper is the Treasury Department, which typically gets more specific with Congress as the X-date approaches.

• In early May, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Johnson that Congress should raise the debt ceiling by mid-July, in case the government's extraordinary measures run out while Congress is on its August recess.