Trump's swings on Iran leave MAGA with whiplash
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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
President Trump's most fervent backers normally revel in his wild unpredictability and improvisation. But in the past few days, they've been rattled by it.
Driving the news: Many in his anti-war MAGA flock were alarmed when he ordered the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. But they mostly withheld criticism as he promised the attacks would be limited, not aimed at ousting Iran's leaders, and wouldn't lead Americans into a prolonged war.
- Then on Sunday he confused and alarmed some MAGA loyalists — and contradicted his own advisers — by advocating for regime change in Iran.
- Trump calmed MAGA world on Monday, essentially claiming victory and touting a ceasefire after Iran responded with a muted missile attack that opened the door for diplomacy.
The big picture: Trump's tendency to adopt flexible stances on key issues often is chaotic, but his followers have hailed it as "strategic ambiguity" — a way to maintain maximum leverage over unsteady opponents.
- His moves on Iran since Saturday, however, have left some of his most dedicated followers wobbly over concerns he would violate a key campaign promise of not getting involved in "forever wars."
Zoom in: Some supporters have seen Trump's back-and-forth moves — spelled out in his posts on Truth Social — as brilliant.
- Others have ridden a roller coaster of feelings, ranging from hope to betrayal and back again. Still others have smiled at what they saw as Trump-style trolling as a negotiating tactic.
- And there are some who aren't totally convinced he'll stick to the anti-war motto of his "America First" movement — though Trump's announcement Monday that the U.S. didn't plan to retaliate to Iran's failed strikes on a U.S. base in Qatar was very well-received.
What they're saying: "I know the man, and I trust him," MAGA activist and Trump ally Charlie Kirk said Sunday. Kirk called for "a bottom-up, people-led revolution of the Persian people taking back their government" in Iran.
- "The Iranian response being theatrical is very good for us," Kirk added. "They gave us an off-ramp, and it looks like President Trump is going to take it.
Popular MAGA influencer Rogan O'Handley suggested Monday that Trump's post on regime change was intended to "psychologically pressure the Ayatollah [Khamenei] to start playing ball" in negotiations.
- "President Trump is not a war-monger — he is a peacemaker. And he does that by peace through strength," O'Handley wrote later.
But Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), one of Trump's most loyal followers in Congress, seemed to reflect some of the MAGA concern about bombing Iran.
- "It feels like a complete bait and switch to please the neocons, warmongers, military industrial complex contracts, and neocon tv personalities that MAGA hates and who were NEVER TRUMPERS!" she wrote on X Monday morning.
- She also defended herself: "Trump is not a king, MAGA is not a cult, and I can and DO have my own opinion."
- Later, in an interview with Axios, she emphasized that she remains a strong supporter of the president. "I got elected for the exact same policies and campaign promises that President Trump got elected on. There is no break."
- After Trump's ceasefire announcement Monday evening, Greene posted on X again: "Thank you, President Trump, for pursuing peace!"
Between the lines: By touching on one of MAGA's dearest causes, Trump's bombings in Iran sparked some of the most visceral infighting among members of the movement since Trump created it a decade ago.
- For the most part, however, the tension hasn't been aimed at Trump, underscoring the deep well of goodwill he retains with his base.
- "[A]ny notion of a divide within the America First movement is a fallacy — the movement, which President Trump created and built up, is completely unified behind him," Breitbart Washington Bureau Chief Matt Boyle told Axios.
