Republicans worry DOGE cuts will sink them in Virginia governor's race

Zoom in: The University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center has projected that 32,000 jobs could be lost in the state this year, many of them federal positions.

• "Northern Virginia is filled with people who suffered the consequences of the DOGE cuts, and it's hard to see them being sympathetic to a Republican candidate who supports the DOGE cuts," said Whit Ayers, a veteran Republican pollster.
• "I suspect this will be an albatross around the neck of every Republican candidate this year," said Virginia Republican Bill Bolling, a former lieutenant governor.

By the numbers: A private poll done for the campaign of a statewide Republican candidate suggested that just 39% of voters had a favorable view of DOGE.

• Nearly half of voters surveyed said they knew of someone impacted by the DOGE cuts, according to results shared with Axios.
• The poll showed Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears trailing former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) by single digits, outside the margin of error.

Between the lines: DOGE could especially hurt Earle-Sears' campaign for governor in Northern Virginia and Norfolk, sections of the state where huge segments of the population are federal workers or have jobs tied to the government.

• Those areas played a role in Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's win in 2021, when he cut into Democratic margins and improved on the GOP's performance in 2017. (Virginia governors can't succeed themselves, so Youngkin isn't allowed to run again.)
• The D.C. suburbs of Northern Virginia are home to upper- and middle-income voters, many of whom have ties to the government and are particularly likely to vote.
• Even non-federal workers in those areas could be impacted by DOGE, given the role federal funding plays in driving the local economy.

Flashback: Republicans already are comparing DOGE's potential impact on Virginia's 2025 election to that of the GOP-led government shutdown of 2013, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of government workers being placed on unpaid leave.

• Democrats swept the state's highest offices that year — an outcome many GOP strategists blamed on the shutdown.
• "Washington, D.C., politics have long shaped the outcome of Virginia off-year elections," Virginia-based GOP strategist Jimmy Keady said in a text to Axios.

• "With over 230,000 Virginians working in or around the federal government, especially in Northern Virginia and Norfolk, any proposal that threatens those jobs — like DOGE — turns into a high-stakes issue," he added.

The other side: Democrats are making DOGE a centerpiece of their election playbook.

• Virginia's Democratic Party has been running ads highlighting Earle-Sears' comments accusing the media of overhyping the impact of DOGE cuts.
• Other Democratic commercials are linking Republican state legislative candidates to Musk.

Behind the scenes: Youngkin has taken steps to try to soften the blow to the state's federal workers, launching a "Virginia Has Jobs" initiative aimed at helping laid-off workers find new positions.

Reality check: Republicans say Earle-Sears has an uphill climb, even without DOGE.

• In every election since 1977 besides one, the state has elected a governor from the opposition party to the sitting president.
• Top GOP officials — including some close to Trump — have criticized Earle-Sears and her campaign. Chris LaCivita, Trump's 2024 co-campaign manager and a longtime player in Virginia politics, has called her team "amateurs."

What they're saying: Peyton Vogel, a spokesperson for Earle-Sears, rejected the notion that federal cutbacks could hurt the GOP candidate.

• "The idea that responsible efforts to rein in spending will hurt Republicans is off-base," Vogel said. "Voters elected a Republican majority to Congress on the promise of fiscal sanity, not business as usual in D.C., and now that majority is making good on those promises."