Trump clears path for Stefanik to run for NY governor

• They come less two months after Trump pulled Stefanik's nomination for UN ambassador because Republicans feared his earlier cherry-picking of other GOP House members for administration posts had jeopardized the party's already-tenuous hold on the House.

Zoom in: Trump last week endorsed two of Stefanik's potential rivals for governor — New York Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman — for re-election to their current posts.

• The moves appeared aimed at taking Lawler and Blakeman out of contention for governor, three Republicans close to the White House told Axios.

What they're saying: "By endorsing Blakeman and Lawler for re-election to their current positions, it looks to me like he is trying to clear the way," said John Catsimatidis, a New York grocery store mogul and prominent Trump supporter.

• Stefanik hasn't asked the White House to clear the field for her, according to a person close to her.
• Spokespeople for the White House, Stefanik, Lawler and Blakeman declined to comment.

The backstory: Stefanik, 40, has been one of Trump's most loyal defenders in Congress, having served on his impeachment defense team in 2019 and later working to block certification of former President Biden's 2020 election win.

• Trump rewarded Stefanik — who began her career as a moderate before becoming a MAGA star — for her loyalty after he won the 2024 election, offering her the ambassadorship.
• After pulling her nomination in March, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "With a very tight [House] Majority, I don't want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise's seat."

Zoom out: Stefanik, who gave up her House GOP Conference chairmanship after being nominated for the UN job, has begun laying the groundwork for a possible 2026 run for governor.

• She appeared at an Albany County GOP picnic last week, and will be speaking at an upcoming Staten Island Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner and a Conservative Party event in New York City, far from her rural upstate district. She plans to attend fundraisers in Erie and Suffolk counties.

Stefanik used her speech at a New York GOP gala dinner last month to go after Hochul.

• She also has been fielding calls from major donors urging her to run, and her political team has begun talking to potential hires. Stefanik and her advisers also have been reviewing data and paths to victory.

The intrigue: Stefanik is slated to meet with Trump later this month, Semafor first reported.

• Early polls suggest Hochul is vulnerable and that Stefanik would have a shot at winning, but Republicans haven't won a governor's race in New York in more than two decades.
• And even if Stefanik loses, she likely could land a Trump's administration job after the 2026 midterms.
• She's not expected to announce whether she's running until the end of the year.

The big picture: Trump's decision to push Lawler for re-election is also shaped by his desire to protect Lawler's Southern New York-based swing seat, which Vice President Harris won by 1 percentage point in 2024.

• Republicans believe Lawler is their best chance to retain the seat, which will be key to deciding the House majority next year..
• Top Republicans close to the White House are circulating a spreadsheet with estimates for how much it would cost the party to defend the seats of potential House retirees. The ballpark figure for Lawler's seat: More than $14 million in TV advertising.
• Lawler is expected to decide his plans in the next few months.
• Said one Trump ally: "This is an all-out effort to make sure Lawler doesn't leave the House."