Surprising winners and losers in the tax bill

• For many, notably high earners and the wealthy, it will mean more money in the bank. Others will have to scramble to stay fed or get health care.

State of play: The White House and Republican lawmakers are framing the proposed tax cuts, which just passed out of the Ways and Means Committee yesterday, as a win for the average American.

• The bill would extend the tax cuts in Trump's 2017 law, which are set to expire, and tack on additional tax breaks, especially at the higher end.
• The White House pointed out in a release that earners making between $30,000 and $80,000 would pay around 15 percent less in taxes in 2027 versus the current law, citing a report by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation and a recent report from Politico.

Yes, but: Most policy groups look at a different measure, which is how tax breaks affect income after taxes. (Here's a great explainer on that from the Tax Policy Center).

• It's clearer through this lens that top earners score a bigger break.

By the numbers: The overall trend is the highest earners receive a bigger boost to income after taxes.

• The top 1% of earners could see a 4.3% increase in income in 2027 versus current law, as all the tax breaks hit, per an analysis from the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The bottom 20% would get a 0.6% boost.
• Another new estimate from the right-leaning Tax Foundation finds a similar pattern, with a 4.4% boost in after-tax income for the top 5% of earners in 2026, a slightly smaller increase for those in the middle, and a 2.4% increase for those in the bottom 20%.
• The tax cuts might not be all that noticeable, particularly at the lower end, since the estimates are compared with a baseline scenario in which taxes would rise with the expiration of the 2017 law.

Between the lines: Those numbers only look at a piece of what's under consideration in the House. Two other tax bills are in various stages.

• One, voted out of committee yesterday, would slash Medicaid funding. The other would radically overhaul SNAP, historically known as food stamps.
• All three tax bills will ultimately get rolled together into the big legislation that could be voted on before Memorial Day.

What they're saying: "When you put the tax cuts together with the spending cuts that are proposed it doesn't just do a little for low- and moderate-income families, it's proposing to take benefits away from people," says Kris Cox, the director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

• This is an income group that also faces disproportionately higher costs from new tariffs.

For the record: "The One, Big, Beautiful Bill is going to deliver historic tax relief for everyday Americans and implement commonsense reforms that will protect and preserve SNAP and Medicaid for the Americans who these programs were intended to serve," White House spokesman Kush Desai says.

• "The President has repeatedly said that he will ensure that these programs will remain a reliable and sustainable lifeline for generations to come, and we are keeping that promise for the American people."
• The Trump administration said the only people who will lose Medicaid coverage are people who shouldn't be covered in first place: adults who could be working and those who are undocumented immigrants. It also argued the SNAP changes aren't cuts but a way to share costs with states.

Follow the money: While the very poor lose out, there are things to like for working-class and middle-class Americans.

• Those who earn tipped income or work overtime receive new tax breaks. A higher standard deduction will also be a boon for taxpayers.
• The elderly also score a bonus. Instead of a direct elimination of income taxes on Social Security, Republicans came out with a slight variation: a temporary increase in the standard deduction for those over 64.

Perhaps surprisingly, some of these provisions scramble red and blue lines.

• If the Medicaid changes pass, it would be a huge blow to hospitals in rural areas, something that could be particularly devastating to maternal health care. Some hospitals would be forced to close.
• The increase to the state and local tax deduction, better known as SALT, would be a boon to more blue states.

Reality check: Things are in first draft mode. Various pieces of the tax bill are in different stages of advancing in the House. The Senate journey has not yet begun.

The bottom line: The outlook isn't so beautiful for the poorest Americans.