Replacing Elon Musk as Tesla CEO would pose a huge challenge

• Tesla has suffered declining sales since Musk became an outspoken ally of President Trump and leader of the federal budget-slashing DOGE.
• Last week Musk pledged to refocus most of his time on Tesla, saying he would take a significant step back from the Department of Government Efficiency.

What they're saying: Picking a replacement for Musk — whose identity as a visionary disruptor has been closely linked to Tesla's brand since the beginning — will be profoundly difficult no matter when that process plays out.

• "I can't think of anybody on the face of the earth or Mars who can replace Elon Musk," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon tells Axios.

The precise circumstances surrounding Musk's eventual departure from the CEO job will greatly influence the nature of the transition.

• If Musk is jettisoned against his will, the board risks upsetting his loyal followers — some of them customers and many of them investors.
• If he goes willingly and gives his blessing to his successor, it could ease the transition.

Yes, but: Any prospective replacement will be operating in Musk's shadow — whether via his public commentary on X, his continued employment with the company in a different role or his stake as its largest investor.

• "If you don't want to tank the company," said Gordon, "you bring in somebody who's going to make good on Musk's vision."

The problem for Tesla is that some CEOs loom so large that the company never really escapes their shadow.

• At Apple, for example, CEO John Sculley elbowed out founder Steve Jobs, but Jobs returned years later to save the company after a series of failed CEOs nearly wrecked it.
• Musk's "Bigfoot shadow is going to be there the way Steve Jobs' shadow was there at Apple," said Gordon, who has advised numerous companies on CEO transitions.

Which is why any potential successor would almost surely make an assortment of demands upon taking the job, possibly including the addition of independent directors to the board and contractual assurances of massive severance if it doesn't work out, Gordon said.

• "I think there are very few attractive candidates who will return a phone call from a headhunter for that job, but there could be somebody who says I will do it under the following conditions," he said.

Who we're watching: Any discussion of who might be a good fit for the role is largely speculation at this point, but several names typically pop up as Tesla observers discuss the someday transition:

• Tom Zhu: Musk last year sent the longtime Tesla executive to China to lead the company's business there. He stays largely out of the spotlight but he's essential to Tesla's business.
• JB Straubel: The former Tesla chief technology officer and Musk confidante, who is currently CEO of battery recycling startup Redwood Materials, still serves on Tesla board.
• John Krafcik: The former CEO of Google driverless car startup Waymo also previously served as CEO of Hyundai Motor America. He's currently on the board of Tesla EV competitor Rivian.
• Gwynne Shotwell: Considered a superstar operator with an uncanny ability to handle life with Musk looking over your shoulder, she is the president of Musk's rocket company SpaceX. But if she shifted to Tesla, it's unclear who would move into her role at SpaceX.
• Someone from the AI sector: Given how much Musk says Tesla's future depends on big AI bets like self-driving cars and humanoid robots, the company could seek out someone with little connection to the auto industry for its next leader.