Scoop: GOP poll shows Medicaid messaging risks
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Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Photo: Pete Kiehart for The Washington Post via Getty Images
New internal GOP polling shows Republicans will have to be careful with how they message on any changes to Medicaid, with U.S. voters opposed to spending cuts to the program — even when framed as an effort to lower national debt.
Why it matters: It's a warning sign for Republican lawmakers eyeing spending cuts, even as many of the top priorities in President Trump's sweeping budget package are popular.
- A plurality of independent voters — and voters overall — were opposed to Medicaid cuts to lower the national debt, according to the poll by Gray House shared with Senate Republicans, and first obtained by Axios.
Zoom in: This was despite support for other proposals — especially tax cuts.
- Majorities supported exempting Social Security from taxes, no tax on tips and boosting border security spending.
- 57% also supported adding work requirements to Medicaid and 60% backed the broader idea of rooting out "waste, fraud and abuse" from the program.
- 47% of voters polled said they are opposed to reducing Medicaid spending to lower the national debt, while 41% said they are in favor.
What we're hearing: Republican Conference Chair Tom Cotton of Arkansas shared top lines with senators during a closed-door lunch on Tuesday.
- He urged them to talk about the bill's popular measures on tax cuts and the border rather than getting caught up in the process that is unfamiliar to most voters, according to a source in the room.
- He highlighted that voters are open to Medicaid reforms like work requirements, even if not when framed as cuts.
What to watch: Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has led the charge on attacking Republicans wanting to cut Medicaid benefits.
- Plus, some key moderate Republicans in both chambers have made clear they will not vote for any bill that includes such cuts.
- But conservatives eager to make a dent in the growing national debt are pushing for more than $1 trillion in spending cuts — which would be likely impossible without impacting Medicaid.
- It's set to be a major political fight over what will be Trump's marquee legislation, with a current expected deadline of July 4.
The intrigue: The poll also revealed the most popular names for the bill. The potential names were brainstormed by various members of the Senate GOP conference, according to the person involved.
- "Make America Prosperous Act" is the leading title contender overall, and the favorite for independent voters.
- It is followed by "More Money for Americans Act," the Republican favorite.
- Democratic voters preferred the name "Less Taxes, More Pay Act," according to the poll.
The other side: Most voters are not yet paying close attention to the budget reconciliation debate consuming both the House and the Senate.
- Reconciliation allows the Senate to avoid the 60-vote filibuster for certain budget-related measures.
- Only 13% of respondents said they had heard "a lot" about it and 38% said they heard "some."
- "We shouldn't talk about the process as much as we should talk about the substance," a source affiliated with the poll said.
Methodology: The Gray House survey was conducted online during the week of April 21. The poll is based on a representative sample of 1,100 adults (age 18 and older) living in the U.S. who are part of the CINT global panel, and weighted based on gender, age, college education, party, party self ID, race, 2024 Presidential vote, region, and election participation.
- The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points.
