Driverless trucks are here

Drivers along a 200-mile stretch of I-45 between Dallas and Houston should get ready for something new: The semi-truck in the next lane might not have anyone in the driver's seat.

Why it matters: Autonomous trucking companies have been testing their fleets on Texas highways for several years, but always with backup safety drivers in the cab.

• Now, one company, Aurora Innovation, says it plans to go completely driverless, a key milestone that promises to reshape the trucking industry.

Driving the news: After years of development, Pittsburgh-based Aurora is launching driverless operations this month on a popular freight route between Dallas and Houston.

• The first autonomous truck is expected to roll down I-45 in the coming days, although Aurora officials declined to share any details.
• The company has said it will begin slowly, with one truck, and will gradually expand the fleet over time.

The big picture: Trucking is the backbone of the American economy, yet the industry is strained by high driver turnover rates, supply chain inefficiencies and rising costs.

• Autonomous trucks can help alleviate these challenges, advocates say.
• Critics, however, worry about inadequate safety oversight, cybersecurity threats and job reductions.

What they're saying: "Everybody is looking at the same economics," Jeff Farrah, CEO of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association, tells Axios.

• "The federal government is saying we have to move 50% more freight by 2050, but there's a shortage of drivers. How do I solve this puzzle with more freight to move and less drivers to do it?"

The other side: Members of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association are skeptical of AV trucking companies' safety claims, especially since there are no federal regulations for AVs.

• "It's absurd that AVs, which are unproven and unmanned, are given more latitude on American highways than professional drivers with years of experience like me are given," Lewie Pugh, the group's executive vice president, said in an interview.

Where it stands: While the number of robotaxi companies has shrunk, at least 10 companies are developing driverless technology for trucks.

• Most expect to "pull the driver" — or go fully autonomous — on public roads later this year or sometime in 2026.
• They all plan to begin in Texas, known for its vital freight corridors, favorable regulatory policies and good weather.

• Kodiak Robotics, which intends to go public soon, says it has already surpassed 750 hours of driving on private roads across West Texas' Permian Basin without a human driver on board.

How it works: Most AV companies plan to license their driverless technology to truck manufacturers.

• Those manufacturers then sell or lease the automated trucks to fleet customers. Under this "driver-as-a-service" model, those fleet customers pay for virtual drivers by the mile, but still manage their own logistics operations.

Between the lines: Trucking and logistics providers have strong financial incentives for automation.

• The industry has struggled to attract enough long-haul drivers, despite big incentives, because of the grueling nature of the job.
• Without driver salaries, fleet operators could reduce their operating costs per mile by as much as 42 percent, according to a McKinsey analysis, even with the added costs of the AV technology and new operations centers to monitor the trucks remotely.

What to watch: Autonomous heavy-duty trucks will account for 13 percent of trucks on U.S. roads in 2035, according to McKinsey projections.

• After mastering Texas highways, AV companies will next expand to freight corridors across the Sunbelt.