Why Asia, Africa loom large in deciding next pope

Zoom in: Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines and Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson are top contenders to be the next pope, said Andrew Chesnut, the Bishop Walter F. Sullivan chairman in Catholic Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University.

• The conclave's election of either would be a dramatic, history-making moment for the Catholic Church.
• There hasn't been a pope of Asian descent for more than 12 centuries, and it's been even longer since there was a pope believed to have been from Africa. Twelve years ago, Francis became the first pope from Latin America.

Tagle, the son of wealthy Filipino and Chinese families, is from a region seen as a gateway to China, where the church is eager to expand, Chesnut said.

• Turkson, who comes from a family of 10 children in Western Ghana, is from a region that already has an exploding rate of church membership.

Zoom out: Pope Francis was seen as a progressive pontiff. He spoke out against economic inequality, warned about climate change, and sympathized with migrants, the poor and the marginalized.

• He also affirmed that transgender people could be baptized and supported same-sex unions.
• Either Tagle or Turkson would be seen as representing a moderate-leaning "correction" in the Roman Catholic Church from the more progressive Francis.
• But both Tagle and Turkson have spoken out in support of migrants and those in poverty, said Chesnut, who correctly predicted Pope Francis' election in 2013.

Other possible candidates include Cardinal Secretary of State of the Vatican Pietro Parolin of Italy, who is seen as a moderate, and Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, a leading candidate of the church's conservative wing.

The intrigue: The rapid growth of the Catholic Church in Asia and Africa — and a priest shortage in the U.S. — has led the church to send a rising number of priests from those regions to the U.S.

• Priests from Africa have been noticeably more visible in Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas and Colorado.
• Meanwhile, Massachusetts and California are seeing more Asian priests in parishes.

State of play: About 20% of Americans identify as Roman Catholic, according to a 2023 American Values Atlas survey by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI).

• That's a sharp decline from 2008, when about 1 in 4 Americans identified as Roman Catholics.
• About 12% of the U.S. population identified themselves as white Catholics; 8% as Hispanic Catholics. PRRI president and founder Robert P. Jones said both populations are divided politically, and sometimes, theologically.
• Charismatic Pentecostalism in Latin America and the U.S. has been pulling Latinos away from the Catholic Church, while younger Latinos are leaving religion altogether.

What we're watching: Whoever the next pope is, he (it's going to be a man) will have to put some focus on appealing to evangelicals to try to counter the declining number of Catholics worldwide, Chesnut said.

• "That's one of the greatest failures of Pope Francis ... that he didn't focus on evangelism. He didn't even visit his home of Argentina," Chesnut said.
• Chesnut said Francis' appointment came amid the Catholic Church's efforts to stop declining membership in Latin America, but membership there dropped 7 to 8 percentage points during his tenure.

What's next: Francis' death puts into motion a meticulous process that brings faith leaders from around the globe to the Vatican to debate and vote on who should lead the church now.

• The conclave, a storied gathering that has been chronicled in film and fiction, typically draws worldwide attention and marks a new era for the church.