Google ad monopoly ruling's surprise winner

• That could open the path for a once-in-a-generation power transition in tech, with AI upstarts like OpenAI and Anthropic best positioned to seize the initiative.

The big picture: In previous eras of platform transition in the tech world, massive and lengthy government antitrust lawsuits distracted and hobbled industry leaders at key moments, giving new companies and industries breathing room to gain footholds and grow.

• It happened in the 1970s and early 1980s, when then-dominant IBM fought a grueling court battle with the U.S. while the new personal computer industry began to take off.
• More recently, it happened in the late 1990s, when Microsoft dueled the government in court over its dominance of the browser market — while a tiny new startup called Google began to win over web users.

Now it's Google's turn in the docket.

• The giant already faces the threat of fines and remedies — like being forced to divest itself of the Chrome browser — as the result of its loss last year in another antitrust case over its dominance of the search market.
• With the new ruling, it will next confront a similar process focusing on significant parts of its ad business.

Famously, these cases take forever. Even after the penalty phases are concluded, Google will almost certainly appeal each decision — a process that generally takes several years.

• After that, the company can also appeal further to the Supreme Court.
• Either appellate level might send the case back to the original court for further trial.

This glacial pace might seem like good news for Google, which won't have to change much until all those appeals conclude.

• But the delays also extend the period during which Google executives and employees are distracted and demoralized by the process.
• Every potential acquisition, every new product rollout and every email conversation inside a company handling this kind of traumatic lawsuit unfolds under a cloud.

In Microsoft's ordeal, after nearly a decade of legal infighting, the company mostly prevailed, and today it remains one of tech's most powerful and richest players.

• But those years also saw Microsoft cede the web search market to Google.
• Bill Gates' firm also flubbed any chance it might have had to dominate the smartphone era, which instead got shaped by Apple's iPhone and Google's Android.

Today, OpenAI is playing the upstart to Google the way Google once challenged Microsoft.

• OpenAI's ChatGPT kicked off the genAI era in late 2022, and though Google remains a strong contender in the AI race, it has regularly been outshone not only by OpenAI but by Anthropic and others.

Yes, but: Google insiders tell Axios the company understands the dangers of the moment.

• The chief lesson the company draws from Microsoft's ordeal 25 years ago is that, while Google must defend itself vigorously in court, it must also preserve its ability to act boldly in pursuing innovations in the marketplace.
• In addition, Google sent an email Thursday to employees noting that the court didn't rule against Google on every point of the lawsuit and urging them to focus on their work.

Zoom out: Google isn't the only tech giant facing antitrust nightmares.

• Meta is in the midst of a trial in a major FTC suit challenging its decade-old acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.
• Federal lawsuits against Apple and Amazon are also both in progress.
• These cases have emerged and developed under both the Trump and Biden administrations.