GOP's Florida yardstick

Keep these numbers in mind ahead of the special elections tomorrow that are keeping Republicans up at night.

• FL-1: Trump won FL-1 by 37 points in 2024, former Rep. Matt Gaetz won by 32.
• FL-6: Trump won by 30 in 2024, former Rep. Mike Waltz won by 33.

The bottom line: If the GOP margin of victory comes in single digits in both races, expect a GOP freakout.

• But if it's just Waltz's seat, look for party strategists to blame the candidate.