Exclusive: More higher-skilled immigrants means stronger economic growth, study finds
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
A new study shows a larger share of high-skilled legal immigrants would have an outsized economic impact.
Why it matters: That report by the Penn Wharton Budget Model — seen first by Axios — finds faster economic growth, less federal debt and higher wages for all income groups if more visas are allocated to college-educated immigrants and those working in STEM-related fields.
What they're saying: "A small change in immigration policy that focuses more on skill — less on family structure — actually has a pretty big impact on the economy," Kent Smetters, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's The Wharton School who authored the report, tells Axios.
How it works: Smetters models the effects of replacing 10% of visas for lower-skilled workers and increasing higher-skilled visas by the same amount. It does not change the number of visas issued, just the composition.
- With more higher-skill immigrants, GDP would be 0.4 percentage point higher than would otherwise be the case in 2054, while consumption would be higher by the same amount.
- For higher-skill STEM immigrants, GDP would be 0.7 percentage point higher than expected in 2054, while consumption would rise by 0.6 percentage point.
Driving the news: Late last year, a debate over legal foreign workers fractured Trumpworld.
- President Trump's right-hand Elon Musk is an avid supporter of H-1B visas, which allow for high-skilled workers in "specialty occupations" to come to the U.S. under a "nonimmigrant status."
- Other Trump supporters questioned Musk's support of that program, noting that the U.S. should focus on U.S. workers above others.
Flashback: "What I want to do is if you graduate from college, I think you should automatically get as part of your diploma a green card," Trump told "The All In" podcast last summer, signaling an appetite for higher-skilled workers.
- In recent weeks, the Trump administration has been attempting to revoke the visas of some academics targeted for participating in pro-Palestinian protests.
Between the lines: Smetters finds that substituting more high-skilled immigrants would increase wages by 1% for lower-skilled workers by 2054 — essentially, the byproduct of fewer of these workers.
- Lower-skilled workers would see wages jump as businesses compete for a smaller pool of workers, the study shows.
- Such a policy, however, might put pressure on businesses that already warn about worker shortages.
