The mystery of Trump's tariff bomb

• Trump has called April 2 "the big one" and "Liberation Day," referring to the wide-ranging levies expected to be announced and potentially take effect a week from Wednesday.

What they're saying: "Because of the attention President Trump has drawn to April 2, presumably something is going to happen. The hard part is trying to figure out what precisely that might be," UBS economist Jonathan Pingle wrote Friday in a client note.

• "[W]hatever it looks like and regardless if one agrees with the application or not, let's hope that it's then done so businesses, households and investors can at least have some visibility from all of this and can plan around them," Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, wrote Monday.

Zoom in: The White House might spare specific sectors from the broad tariffs on April 2, as Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported. That's a turnaround from Trump's threats to the auto and pharmaceutical industries.

• A White House official said no final decision has been made; there might be sectoral tariffs announced on April 2, or perhaps not.
• In a sign of the thirst for clarity, stocks jumped after reports of a more narrow tariff plan. The yield on the U.S. 10-year ticked up by 6 basis points Monday morning.

The big picture: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a television interview last week that tariffs would focus on the "dirty 15" nations — a new hint about April 2.

• Bessent told Fox Business that the administration would focus on this select group of countries that have "substantial" tariffs on U.S. goods. Among them: China, the European Union, Mexico and Vietnam, according to the German Marshall Fund, a nonpartisan policy group.
• "What's going to happen on April 2 — each country will receive a number that we believe represents their tariffs. For some countries it could be quite low. For some countries it could be quite high," Bessent said.

The intrigue: As of Monday morning, there is a new concept that will be part of the April 2 bonanza: secondary tariffs.

• In a post on Truth Social, Trump said countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela will face a 25% tariff on any goods sent to the U.S., effective April 2.
• It's payback for the alleged gangs Trump says Venezuela sends to the U.S.
• That raises the prospect of even higher tariffs on China, a top destination for Venezuela's crude oil exports.
• Trump signed an executive order Monday night giving the secretary of State the discretion to impose the tariff.

Perhaps the biggest question for businesses plotting investment decisions is how long the tariffs that arrive may stick.

• Are they a temporary tool meant for achieving narrow policy aims — reducing fentanyl coming over the border, for example, as is the stated purpose of Canada and Mexico tariffs — or part of a long-term rewiring of the global economy to favor more U.S. manufacturing?
• Trump and his advisers speak of using tariffs in both lanes, and aren't terribly precise about differentiating which policy shifts are aimed at which goals.

Bessent suggested any negotiations ahead of April 2 could avert tariffs altogether.

• "I'm optimistic that April 2nd, some of the tariffs may not have to go on because a deal is pre-negotiated, or that once countries receive their reciprocal tariff number, that right after that they will come to us and want to negotiate it down," Bessent said.

Between the lines: Trump also suggests tariffs will become a major driver of federal revenue, which implies they need to remain in place indefinitely.

• That has very different implications for global businesses than a world in which tariffs are phased in and out as the president seeks to achieve tactical goals.
• The latter scenario could mean more volatility month to month but less need to reshore manufacturing activity. The former means that companies may need to rethink how they operate in the long run.

The bottom line: It's a rough time to be a logistics chief at a company with a global supply chain. It's not just that we don't know quite what the administration will do nine days from now; it's that we don't know how long-lasting it will prove to be.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with details of the president's executive order.