"Trump trades" are falling across markets
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After a two-month honeymoon, where the value of just about anything Trump-adjacent rose as he prepared to take office, markets have now soured on many "Trump trades."
Why it matters: At some point, the declines will test whether there's still a "Trump put," as in his first presidency — where Trump tended to swiftly reverse policies the market didn't like — or if Trump 2.0 really doesn't care as much about markets.
The big picture: The economy, as Axios's Courtenay Brown notes, faces a number of potholes, which are all sapping investor confidence.
- But the assets most closely tied to President Trump are falling faster than the broader market — some because hopes about his policies may have exceeded reality, others as consumers and investors sour on the activities of Trump advisors like Elon Musk.
By the numbers: Over the last month, shares of some of the most prominent Trump trade stocks have slumped.
- Peter Thiel's defense contractor Palantir is down 13%, Trump's own social media company Trump Media & Technology Group is down 26% and Musk's Tesla is down 29%.
- Other stocks that rose on hopes of future Trump action are falling on reality, too. Private prison operator GEO Group more than doubled after his election, but is down 10% in the last month.
- All are dramatically underperforming the S&P 500, which is weak too, down 3% over that period. In fact, of the world's major indices, it's one of the worst performers since early February.
The intrigue: It's not just stocks — other Trump trade assets are falling, too.
- "The first crypto president" has seen bitcoin fall 8% in the last month, even factoring in the huge rally he sparked last weekend by advancing the idea of a national crypto reserve.
- The Trump family's own meme coins are tanking, too — Official Trump is down 23% and Melania Meme is down 51%.
Zoom in: Not every Trump trade has gone entirely badly, in the administration's view.
- Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds are about 14 basis points lower now than they were a month ago, precisely what the administration wants to see over the long term.
Yes, but: Yields aren't falling because things are great, they're falling because the market's nervous about economic growth. As Axios's Felix Salmon notes, recession fears are rising quickly, casting a shadow over markets.
What they're saying: "The tariffs alone aren't enough to hurt the economy in a noticeable way, but when you take tariffs, plus broader worries about the economy, and a Fed that still might take its time on lowering rates, that's when you start to wonder if the record highs in stocks from earlier this year were justified," writes Michael Landsberg, who manages $1 billion as chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management in Florida.
The bottom line: Buy the Trump transition, sell the Trump presidency has worked out relatively well for most investors so far, providing they can stomach what may come next.
