Exclusive: Gaetz could be next Florida attorney general

Florida's next attorney general could be the ex-congressman who almost became President Trump's U.S. attorney general: Matt Gaetz.

Why it matters: Despite the intense controversy he generated before withdrawing his nomination to be in Trump's Cabinet, Gaetz still has strong name ID and is well-liked enough among Florida's GOP base to be a formidable candidate.

• In a hypothetical primary matchup against Attorney General James Uthmeier, Gaetz was favored 39%-21%, according to a recent survey of likely Republican voters by Tony Fabrizio, one of the nation's top pollsters who works for Donald Trump and several GOP clients.

Zoom in: There's already a war of words brewing between Gaetz and Uthmeier supporters over right-wing influencers Andrew and Tristan Tate, the Florida men who recently were allowed to return to the U.S. after facing sex-trafficking charges in Romania.

• Uthmeier on Tuesday announced an investigation into the Tates. Gaetz — who as a member of Congress faced allegations of paying a minor for sex — has criticized Uthmeier's motives.

Reality check: A race against Uthmeier would be no slam dunk for Gaetz. Fabrizio's poll found 40% of GOP voters were undecided.

• "2026 is going to be a dynamic year in Florida politics, for sure," Gaetz told Axios. "I'm humbled that so many Florida Republicans support me. Sometimes the AG itch doesn't go away with one scratch."
• Gaetz has considered running for state attorney general in the past and hasn't ruled it out in 2026. He's also told others he might run for governor.
• A spokesperson for Uthmeier couldn't be reached.

Zoom out: In red-state Florida, the victor of in a GOP primary in a statewide race is typically the odds-on favorite to win in the general election. Registered Republicans in Florida now outnumber Democrats by 1 million.

The intrigue: Florida's 2026 ballot could be full of must-watch races.

• U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R) is running for governor and Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis is considering a bid. Her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis, is in his second four-year term and can't run again under state law.
• Donalds has been endorsed by Trump, but the governor and first lady met with Trump last weekend at the president's International golf club in West Palm Beach to try to curry his favor.
• Uthmeier has never run for statewide office. He was chief of staff for DeSantis, who appointed Uthmeier attorney general two weeks ago to fill the seat vacated by Ashley Moody. DeSantis had appointed Moody to fill Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate seat, which he gave up to become Trump's secretary of state.

Flashback: Gaetz quit Congress and then his bid for the top Justice Department post amid a crush of terrible headlines related to a years-long sex-trafficking investigation that resulted in no charges.

• Gaetz maintained his innocence and characterized a related House Ethics Committee investigation as a witch hunt driven by allies of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), whose ouster Gaetz engineered.

Whether Gaetz runs or not, the investigation into the Tate brothers after they arrived last week in Florida has elevated Uthmeier's profile. The Tates deny wrongdoing and criticized Uthmeier and DeSantis, who denounced them.

• "Ron DeSantis is attacking me because he was worried I would support Byron Donalds over his wife," Andrew Tate posted Tuesday night on X. "They attacked me to prevent me from destroying his wife's political ambitions."

Gaetz chimed in on Wednesday.

• "DeSantis/hisAG are using you to virtue signal against the unrighteous," Gaetz wrote on X.
• "It's all just posturing," Gaetz said. "Hell, Florida even let O.J. Simpson move here, so if you haven't committed any crimes you have little to fear from the Sunshine State."

Fabrizio's poll of 600 likely Republican voters in Florida was conducted via landline and cellphone live callers on Feb. 26-27. It has a +/- error of 4 percentage points.