Republicans fear their big budget win is a 2026 time bomb

• One Republican moderate, speaking on the condition of anonymity to give candid thoughts about political concerns surrounding their party's marquee legislation, told Axios: "It could be trouble."
• "We saw what happened in 2018," the lawmaker said, referring to the midterm year in which voter anger over the GOP's legislative efforts helped Democrats flip more than 40 House seats.

Driving the news: The House voted Tuesday to adopt House Republicans' budget resolution, with all but one House Republican voting in favor of the measure and every Democrat opposing it.

• The resolution — a first step toward the hulking budget reconciliation bill Republicans hope to pass — allows $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, offset by $2 trillion in spending cuts.
• The vote came after a tortured process in which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) strained to bring together right-wing hardliners who want greater spending cuts and centrists fearful of cuts to programs like Medicaid.

State of play: After the vote, some vulnerable Republicans were quick to distance themselves from the notion that the budget measure does anything more than provide a conceptual framework for the final bill.

• "Last night's vote was just a procedural step to start federal budget negotiations and does NOT change any current laws," Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) said in a strident statement Wednesday morning.
• Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), in a CNN interview, insisted there is "zero mention of cutting Medicaid" in the budget resolution — even as it calls for the Energy and Commerce Committee to seek $880 billion in cuts, some of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.

Between the lines: Republicans have been barraged the last week and a half by angry constituents at town halls and protests outside their district offices complaining about DOGE's layoffs and cuts to federal programs.

• While DOGE has been the primary target of that voter blowback, House Republicans say they have also faced plenty of flack over the prospective benefit cuts in the GOP's fiscal package.
• "Most of the concern now is over ... DOGE," said a second House Republican who spoke anonymously, "but there's also, maybe not too far behind that, the message that they are trying to get across on reconciliation."

Zoom in: Despite voting for the budget measure, moderate and swing-district House Republicans told Axios they are drawing clear red lines on what they will support in a final package.

• "If that doesn't match with what our constituents and our district is looking for, then we won't be voting for that product," said a third House Republican.
• A fourth told Axios: "I have told my leadership ... there are scores of Republicans who don't want to go further [on Medicaid] than requiring work for able-bodied adults, getting the illegals off and rooting out waste, fraud and abuse."
• "If it goes further than that," they said, "the bill is probably dead."

Yes, but: Conservatives are equally emphatic the bill must include substantial enough cuts to Medicaid to offset the increases in spending — creating a seemingly unworkable dilemma for Johnson.

• Insufficiently deep Medicaid cuts are "probably a nonstarter," said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.).
• Burlison went as far as to say Republicans "should cut more" than the budget provides for, telling Axios: "I just had people in my office say, 'You didn't cut enough.'"

What to watch: Democrats are eager to exploit Republicans' struggles as the process of crafting the final package begins.

• "Health care's gone for everyone ... we just won back the House," exulted Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) coming out of the budget vote on Tuesday.
• Democrats' House Majority PAC is circulating a memo on the vote, first shared with Axios, titled: "House Republicans Ignore Constituents, Vote For Trump-Musk Agenda."