The big bet behind Chuck Schumer's shutdown warning

• Schumer will need to keep seven Democratic senators from joining Senate Republicans on a filibuster vote, if all Republicans support the package.
• "Senate Democrats will use our votes to help steady the ship for the American people," Schumer said Monday, in a clear warning to Republicans.
• Negotiations are foundering and Republicans haven't made a unified top-line spending offer to Democrats, according to multiple sources.

Zoom out: Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2026 haven't been tested on whether they'll break with their party on a potential government shutdown.

• Some of them have crossed the aisle on hot-button cultural issues, like the Laken Riley Act.
• But Trump's first month in office is making it more difficult for Democrats and Republicans to work together on anything.

The bottom line: A government shutdown vote is a tougher call than a procedural vote on a foreign policy.

• Schumer scored a tactical and strategic victory last month as the Democrats stopped a vote on a pro-Israel GOP bill from coming to the floor. However, it took several emergency meetings to craft the response.
• Now, Democratic leaders are confident a House spending bill that only relies on GOP votes would flop in the chamber, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations.